Rochdale
League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #12 of 24 60.8 expected pts · currently 14 pts after 10 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full League Two simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Rochdale?
Sample still small 2026-27 · 5 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Rochdale's results were 13.3% harder to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.
| Market | Rochdale | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 20.0% | 35.2% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 60.0% | 61.1% |
| Both teams to score | 40.0% | 51.8% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | League Two | #18 | 1419 | 1468 | 1468 |
| 2022-23 | League Two | #21 | 1465 | 1465 | 1425 |
| 2021-22 | League Two | #15 | 1516 | 1564 | 1480 |
| 2020-21 | League One | #16 | 1441 | 1474 | 1466 |
| 2019-20 | League One | #12 | 1497 | 1497 | 1457 |
| 2018-19 | League One | #15 | 1545 | 1545 | 1469 |
| 2017-18 | League One | #10 | 1498 | 1520 | 1514 |
| 2016-17 | League One | #10 | 1499 | 1623 | 1533 |
| 2015-16 | League One | #8 | 1471 | 1563 | 1541 |
| 2014-15 | League One | #18 | 1351 | 1554 | 1434 |
| 2013-14 | League Two | #6 | 1539 | 1633 | 1552 |
| 2012-13 | League Two | #11 | 1461 | 1559 | 1509 |
| 2011-12 | League One | #24 | 1495 | 1499 | 1334 |
| 2010-11 | League One | #9 | 1496 | 1593 | 1526 |
| 2009-10 | League Two | #16 | 1468 | 1673 | 1455 |
| 2008-09 | League Two | #14 | 1571 | 1595 | 1459 |
| 2007-08 | League Two | #5 | 1561 | 1656 | 1592 |
| 2006-07 | League Two | #2 | 1438 | 1616 | 1614 |
| 2005-06 | League Two | #17 | 1529 | 1565 | 1454 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | at Tranmere | L Rochdale 31.7% · draw 31.7% | D ✗ |
| Oct 03, 2026 | vs Swindon | W Rochdale 40.8% · draw 30.9% | W ✓ |
| Sep 26, 2026 | at Fleetwood Town | L Rochdale 22.8% · draw 29.0% | W ✗ |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Oldham | L Rochdale 31.4% · draw 29.0% | W ✗ |
| Sep 12, 2026 | at Walsall | L Rochdale 24.9% · draw 28.4% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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