Fleetwood Town
League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #15 of 24 in League Two 61 pts · 15W–16D–15L · GD -1
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League Two simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Fleetwood Town?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Fleetwood Town's results were 2.2% harder to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.
| Market | Fleetwood Town | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 51.2% | 49.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | 52.1% |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | 50.9% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | League Two | #12 | 1533 | 1548 | 1493 |
| 2024-25 | League Two | #16 | 1553 | 1596 | 1470 |
| 2023-24 | League One | #16 | 1485 | 1485 | 1453 |
| 2022-23 | League One | #14 | 1358 | 1515 | 1482 |
| 2021-22 | League One | #22 | 1447 | 1504 | 1339 |
| 2020-21 | League One | #15 | 1614 | 1614 | 1470 |
| 2019-20 | League One | #2 | 1520 | 1637 | 1629 |
| 2018-19 | League One | #14 | 1449 | 1539 | 1480 |
| 2017-18 | League One | #15 | 1622 | 1643 | 1471 |
| 2016-17 | League One | #3 | 1461 | 1670 | 1625 |
| 2015-16 | League One | #15 | 1472 | 1501 | 1450 |
| 2014-15 | League One | #14 | 1517 | 1567 | 1473 |
| 2013-14 | League Two | #7 | 1441 | 1587 | 1551 |
| 2012-13 | League Two | #24 | 1500 | 1575 | 1402 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | vs Milton Keynes Dons | L Fleetwood Town 27.1% · draw 28.2% | D ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Shrewsbury | W Fleetwood Town 34.4% · draw 31.8% | D ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Chesterfield | L Fleetwood Town 33.0% · draw 31.1% | D ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Accrington | W Fleetwood Town 35.2% · draw 31.6% | W ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs Barnet | W Fleetwood Town 36.1% · draw 31.7% | L ✗ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | at Bristol Rvs | L Fleetwood Town 30.4% · draw 30.9% | L ✓ |
| Mar 28, 2026 | at Swindon | L Fleetwood Town 27.3% · draw 30.3% | D ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Crawley Town | W Fleetwood Town 48.0% · draw 27.1% | W ✓ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | at Grimsby | L Fleetwood Town 29.9% · draw 31.5% | L ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Tranmere | W Fleetwood Town 56.8% · draw 24.1% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The League Two title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/fleetwood-town">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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