League Two 2026-2027: Gillingham vs Bristol Rvs Prediction - 19 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Gillingham

Home Team
29%
VS

Bristol Rvs

Away Team
42%
Draw: 29%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 24.3
Expected Spread: -0.4

Why the Model Leans Bristol Rvs

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Gillingham
Results & dominance +8.8 Bristol Rvs
Attack +6.1 Bristol Rvs
Defense +4.6 Bristol Rvs
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.5 Bristol Rvs

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 60% for Bristol Rvs. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Form & results +1.5 Under
Gillingham attack & chance creation +1.3 Under
Bristol Rvs defense +0.9 Under
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +0.9 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 54% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barnet 6 3 3 0 14 9 5 12
2 Bristol Rvs 6 4 0 2 12 8 4 12
3 York 6 3 2 1 13 8 5 11
4 Cheltenham 6 3 2 1 13 10 3 11
5 Walsall 6 2 4 0 8 4 4 10
6 Grimsby 6 2 4 0 9 6 3 10
7 Fleetwood Town 6 2 4 0 7 4 3 10
8 Crewe 6 2 4 0 6 4 2 10
9 Swindon 6 3 1 2 8 10 -2 10
10 Tranmere 6 2 3 1 9 7 2 9
11 Gillingham 6 2 3 1 8 6 2 9
12 Chesterfield 6 2 2 2 8 8 0 8
13 Colchester 6 2 2 2 7 9 -2 8
14 Oldham 6 2 1 3 8 7 1 7
15 Salford 6 2 1 3 7 9 -2 7
16 Rotherham 6 1 3 2 9 10 -1 6
17 Northampton 6 1 3 2 3 5 -2 6
18 Shrewsbury 6 2 0 4 4 10 -6 6
19 Newport County 6 1 2 3 10 11 -1 5
20 Exeter 6 1 2 3 4 5 -1 5
21 Accrington 6 1 2 3 10 13 -3 5
22 Port Vale 6 1 2 3 3 7 -4 5
23 Crawley Town 6 1 1 4 6 11 -5 4
24 Rochdale 6 1 1 4 5 10 -5 4

Recent Trends

Gillingham W W D D D

  • Last Match: W vs Tranmere (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Rochdale (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Chesterfield (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Northampton (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Fleetwood Town (Goals: 0 - 0)

Bristol Rvs L W W W W

  • Last Match: L vs Grimsby (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Rotherham (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Colchester (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Crawley Town (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Newport County (Goals: 5 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Gillingham

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.33
Clean Sheets 2

Bristol Rvs

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.33
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.67
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Gillingham a 29% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 29% and Bristol Rvs at 42%. This is a tight call, with Bristol Rvs only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 54% and sees both teams scoring in 53% of cases.

Match Analysis

Gillingham arrive with 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (WWDDD from most recent), scoring 8 and conceding 3 with 2 clean sheets. Bristol Rvs arrive with 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (LWWWW from most recent), scoring 10 and conceding 5 with 3 clean sheets. In the table Gillingham sit 11th with 9 points from 6 games and a goal difference of +2, while Bristol Rvs are 2nd with 12 points and a goal difference of +4. That puts Bristol Rvs 3 points clear of their opponent. Gillingham average 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over their last five home games, while Bristol Rvs average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Gillingham), results & dominance (8.8 points toward Bristol Rvs), attack (6.1 points toward Bristol Rvs). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Gillingham
Goals in last 5 matches
Bristol Rvs
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 54% and Over 2.5 at 46%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Gillingham matches produced 2.2 goals on average over their last 5, Bristol Rvs matches 3.0. Both teams to score comes in at 53%, no goal for at least one side at 47%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and form & results pulls toward Under by 1.5 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Gillingham
Corners in last 5 matches
Bristol Rvs
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.7 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 50%, which leaves 50% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Gillingham
Shots in last 5 matches
Bristol Rvs
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 24.3 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 24. The chance of 24 shots or fewer is 53%, which leaves 47% for 25 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Gillingham wins by X goals. Negative = Bristol Rvs wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Gillingham vs Bristol Rvs with expected spread of -0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Gillingham vs Bristol Rvs
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.4 goals in favour of Bristol Rvs. The spread model gives 18% to a Gillingham win by two goals or more and 51% to any Bristol Rvs win. A Bristol Rvs win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Bristol Rvs win (42%), Under 2.5 (54%), Goal (53%). Expected totals: 9.7 corners and 24.3 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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