Bristol Rvs

League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1520 · #7 League Two 5W-0D-5L · 15 pts On script Updated Oct 10, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #8 of 24 67.0 expected pts · currently 15 pts after 10 matches

League title 1.6%
Promotion 20.9%
Automatic promotion 13.1%
Promotion playoffs 31.4%
Relegation 0.5%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full League Two simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Bristol Rvs?

On script 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Bristol Rvs's results were 10.9% easier to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.

MarketBristol RvsLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 65.8% 49.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 46.3% 52.1%
Both teams to score 51.2% 50.9%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 League Two #7 1553 1606 1520
2025-26 League Two #8 1471 1590 1590
2024-25 League One #23 1443 1459 1310
2023-24 League One #19 1428 1550 1402
2022-23 League One #20 1329 1531 1396
2021-22 League Two #1 1601 1679 1679
2020-21 League One #24 1441 1492 1306
2019-20 League One #19 1482 1584 1418
2018-19 League One #10 1476 1532 1509
2017-18 League One #11 1465 1537 1494
2016-17 League One #13 1416 1558 1476
2015-16 League Two #2 1396 1658 1658
2013-14 League Two #23 1496 1541 1401
2012-13 League Two #10 1452 1578 1525
2011-12 League Two #13 1609 1609 1482
2010-11 League One #23 1434 1504 1405
2009-10 League One #21 1480 1592 1428
2008-09 League One #10 1417 1615 1513
2007-08 League One #19 1501 1569 1412
2006-07 League Two #3 1427 1610 1610
2005-06 League Two #19 1473 1548 1438

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 10, 2026 vs Barnet W Bristol Rvs 37.5% · draw 30.9% L ✗
Oct 03, 2026 at Crewe W Bristol Rvs 38.0% · draw 30.2% L ✗
Sep 26, 2026 vs Exeter W Bristol Rvs 60.8% · draw 23.4% W ✓
Sep 19, 2026 at Gillingham W Bristol Rvs 42.5% · draw 28.9% L ✗
Sep 12, 2026 at Grimsby L Bristol Rvs 29.0% · draw 30.2% L ✓

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/bristol-rvs">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)

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