Gillingham

League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1506 · #11 League Two 4W-4D-2L · 16 pts In line Updated Oct 10, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #9 of 24 64.4 expected pts · currently 16 pts after 10 matches

League title 0.8%
Promotion 12.9%
Automatic promotion 7.9%
Promotion playoffs 25.2%
Relegation 1.6%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full League Two simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Gillingham?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Gillingham's results were 0.3% easier to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.

MarketGillinghamLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 53.7% 49.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 58.5% 52.1%
Both teams to score 51.2% 50.9%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 League Two #11 1381 1506 1506
2025-26 League Two #21 1502 1622 1396
2024-25 League Two #9 1516 1603 1515
2023-24 League Two #9 1573 1633 1484
2022-23 League Two #9 1526 1544 1544
2021-22 League One #20 1552 1552 1397
2020-21 League One #6 1496 1569 1569
2019-20 League One #9 1489 1580 1540
2018-19 League One #13 1512 1534 1481
2017-18 League One #16 1426 1589 1471
2016-17 League One #21 1464 1496 1406
2015-16 League One #18 1545 1620 1416
2014-15 League One #5 1422 1547 1529
2013-14 League One #17 1437 1480 1428
2012-13 League Two #6 1538 1659 1558
2011-12 League Two #9 1524 1606 1526
2010-11 League Two #8 1532 1616 1517
2009-10 League One #16 1441 1483 1458
2008-09 League Two #5 1502 1563 1547
2007-08 League One #23 1462 1502 1387
2006-07 League One #16 1526 1526 1471
2005-06 League One #9 1518 1588 1512

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 10, 2026 at Rotherham L Gillingham 26.5% · draw 30.8% W ✗
Oct 03, 2026 vs Newport County W Gillingham 43.9% · draw 30.3% D ✗
Sep 26, 2026 at York L Gillingham 17.2% · draw 26.3% L ✓
Sep 19, 2026 vs Bristol Rvs L Gillingham 28.6% · draw 28.9% W ✗
Sep 12, 2026 vs Tranmere W Gillingham 38.7% · draw 30.8% W ✓

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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