Gillingham
League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #17 of 24 in League Two 53 pts · 13W–14D–19L · GD -19
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League Two simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Gillingham?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Gillingham's results were 0.3% easier to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.
| Market | Gillingham | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 53.7% | 49.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 58.5% | 52.1% |
| Both teams to score | 51.2% | 50.9% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | League Two | #21 | 1502 | 1622 | 1396 |
| 2024-25 | League Two | #9 | 1516 | 1603 | 1515 |
| 2023-24 | League Two | #9 | 1573 | 1633 | 1484 |
| 2022-23 | League Two | #9 | 1526 | 1544 | 1544 |
| 2021-22 | League One | #20 | 1552 | 1552 | 1397 |
| 2020-21 | League One | #6 | 1496 | 1569 | 1569 |
| 2019-20 | League One | #9 | 1489 | 1580 | 1540 |
| 2018-19 | League One | #13 | 1512 | 1534 | 1481 |
| 2017-18 | League One | #16 | 1426 | 1589 | 1471 |
| 2016-17 | League One | #21 | 1464 | 1496 | 1406 |
| 2015-16 | League One | #18 | 1545 | 1620 | 1416 |
| 2014-15 | League One | #5 | 1422 | 1547 | 1529 |
| 2013-14 | League One | #17 | 1437 | 1480 | 1428 |
| 2012-13 | League Two | #6 | 1538 | 1659 | 1558 |
| 2011-12 | League Two | #9 | 1524 | 1606 | 1526 |
| 2010-11 | League Two | #8 | 1532 | 1616 | 1517 |
| 2009-10 | League One | #16 | 1441 | 1483 | 1458 |
| 2008-09 | League Two | #5 | 1502 | 1563 | 1547 |
| 2007-08 | League One | #23 | 1462 | 1502 | 1387 |
| 2006-07 | League One | #16 | 1526 | 1526 | 1471 |
| 2005-06 | League One | #9 | 1518 | 1588 | 1512 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | vs Shrewsbury | W Gillingham 37.4% · draw 31.3% | W ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Barnet | L Gillingham 15.4% · draw 20.4% | L ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Grimsby | L Gillingham 30.3% · draw 29.4% | L ✓ |
| Apr 14, 2026 | at Cheltenham | W Gillingham 35.4% · draw 31.1% | L ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Salford | L Gillingham 20.6% · draw 25.8% | D ✗ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs Accrington | W Gillingham 38.4% · draw 31.9% | W ✓ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | at Walsall | L Gillingham 27.6% · draw 28.6% | D ✗ |
| Mar 28, 2026 | at Crawley Town | L Gillingham 33.9% · draw 30.7% | L ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Bristol Rvs | W Gillingham 40.6% · draw 31.2% | L ✗ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | vs Swindon | L Gillingham 33.2% · draw 30.2% | L ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The League Two title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/gillingham">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/gillingham">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>