League Two 2026-2027: Gillingham vs Newport County Prediction - 3 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Gillingham

Home Team
44%
VS

Newport County

Away Team
26%
Draw: 30%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 24.6
Expected Spread: +0.4

Why the Model Leans Gillingham

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Gillingham
Defense +1.8 Gillingham
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.2 Gillingham
Results & dominance +0.6 Gillingham
Attack +0.5 Newport County

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 63% for Gillingham. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Gillingham attack & chance creation +1.6 Under
Newport County attack & chance creation +1.0 Under
Newport County defense +0.9 Over
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +0.7 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barnet 7 4 3 0 17 10 7 15
2 Cheltenham 8 4 3 1 16 12 4 15
3 Bristol Rvs 8 5 0 3 13 11 2 15
4 York 8 4 2 2 16 10 6 14
5 Walsall 8 3 5 0 11 5 6 14
6 Grimsby 8 3 4 1 12 8 4 13
7 Salford 8 4 1 3 12 10 2 13
8 Gillingham 8 3 3 2 11 9 2 12
9 Crewe 8 2 6 0 8 6 2 12
10 Tranmere 8 2 5 1 10 8 2 11
11 Chesterfield 8 3 2 3 11 10 1 11
12 Swindon 8 3 2 3 9 12 -3 11
13 Rotherham 8 2 4 2 11 11 0 10
14 Fleetwood Town 8 2 4 2 9 9 0 10
15 Colchester 8 2 4 2 10 12 -2 10
16 Rochdale 8 3 1 4 9 11 -2 10
17 Newport County 8 2 3 3 12 12 0 9
18 Shrewsbury 8 2 2 4 7 13 -6 8
19 Accrington 8 1 4 3 11 14 -3 7
20 Oldham 8 2 1 5 9 13 -4 7
21 Exeter 8 1 3 4 4 6 -2 6
22 Northampton 7 1 3 3 3 6 -3 6
23 Port Vale 7 1 2 4 3 9 -6 5
24 Crawley Town 7 1 1 5 6 13 -7 4

Recent Trends

Gillingham L W W W D

  • Last Match: L vs York (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Bristol Rvs (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Tranmere (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Rochdale (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Chesterfield (Goals: 1 - 1)

Newport County W D D L L

  • Last Match: W vs Grimsby (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Accrington (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Fleetwood Town (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Northampton (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Salford (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Gillingham

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.50
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.00
Clean Sheets 2

Newport County

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.00
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Gillingham a 44% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 30% and Newport County at 26%. This is a tight call, with Gillingham only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 53% and sees both teams scoring in 49% of cases.

Match Analysis

Gillingham arrive with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (LWWWD from most recent), scoring 10 and conceding 5 with 2 clean sheets. Newport County arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (WDDLL from most recent), scoring 4 and conceding 5 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Gillingham sit 8th with 12 points from 8 games and a goal difference of +2, while Newport County are 17th with 9 points and a level goal difference. That puts Gillingham 3 points clear of their opponent. Gillingham average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Newport County average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Gillingham), defense (1.8 points toward Gillingham), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (1.2 points toward Gillingham). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Gillingham
Goals in last 5 matches
Newport County
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 53% and Over 2.5 at 47%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Gillingham matches produced 3.0 goals on average over their last 5, Newport County matches 1.8. Both teams to score comes in at 49%, no goal for at least one side at 51%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Gillingham attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 1.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Gillingham
Corners in last 5 matches
Newport County
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.6 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 50%, which leaves 50% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Gillingham
Shots in last 5 matches
Newport County
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 24.6 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 24. The chance of 24 shots or fewer is 50%, which leaves 50% for 25 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Gillingham wins by X goals. Negative = Newport County wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Gillingham vs Newport County with expected spread of +0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Gillingham vs Newport County
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.4 goals in favour of Gillingham. The spread model gives 27% to a Gillingham win by two goals or more and 38% to any Newport County win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Gillingham win (44%), Under 2.5 (53%), No Goal (51%). Expected totals: 9.6 corners and 24.6 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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