Newport County

League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1485 · #14 League Two 3W-4D-3L · 13 pts In line Updated Oct 10, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #13 of 24 59.8 expected pts · currently 13 pts after 10 matches

League title 0.2%
Promotion 5.1%
Automatic promotion 2.6%
Promotion playoffs 12.8%
Relegation 4.7%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full League Two simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Newport County?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Newport County's results were 9.0% easier to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.

MarketNewport CountyLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 58.5% 49.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 48.8% 52.1%
Both teams to score 39.0% 50.9%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 League Two #14 1455 1485 1485
2025-26 League Two #15 1498 1525 1444
2024-25 League Two #23 1382 1486 1331
2023-24 League Two #24 1510 1583 1362
2022-23 League Two #10 1496 1542 1529
2021-22 League Two #13 1554 1598 1490
2020-21 League Two #9 1445 1614 1542
2019-20 League Two #21 1568 1650 1428
2018-19 League Two #1 1464 1592 1591
2017-18 League Two #13 1490 1563 1478
2016-17 League Two #14 1378 1485 1485
2015-16 League Two #21 1444 1515 1373
2014-15 League Two #16 1421 1628 1464
2013-14 League Two #16 1521 1611 1444

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 10, 2026 vs Colchester W Newport County 38.9% · draw 31.4% W ✓
Oct 03, 2026 at Gillingham L Newport County 25.8% · draw 30.3% D ✗
Sep 26, 2026 vs Grimsby L Newport County 23.1% · draw 25.1% W ✗
Sep 19, 2026 at Accrington L Newport County 29.5% · draw 30.1% D ✗
Sep 12, 2026 vs Fleetwood Town L Newport County 32.3% · draw 29.9% D ✗

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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