Newport County
League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #20 of 24 in League Two 43 pts · 12W–7D–27L · GD -29
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League Two simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Newport County?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Newport County's results were 9.0% easier to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.
| Market | Newport County | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 58.5% | 49.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 48.8% | 52.1% |
| Both teams to score | 39.0% | 50.9% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | League Two | #15 | 1498 | 1525 | 1444 |
| 2024-25 | League Two | #23 | 1382 | 1486 | 1331 |
| 2023-24 | League Two | #24 | 1510 | 1583 | 1362 |
| 2022-23 | League Two | #10 | 1496 | 1542 | 1529 |
| 2021-22 | League Two | #13 | 1554 | 1598 | 1490 |
| 2020-21 | League Two | #9 | 1445 | 1614 | 1542 |
| 2019-20 | League Two | #21 | 1568 | 1650 | 1428 |
| 2018-19 | League Two | #1 | 1464 | 1592 | 1591 |
| 2017-18 | League Two | #13 | 1490 | 1563 | 1478 |
| 2016-17 | League Two | #14 | 1378 | 1485 | 1485 |
| 2015-16 | League Two | #21 | 1444 | 1515 | 1373 |
| 2014-15 | League Two | #16 | 1421 | 1628 | 1464 |
| 2013-14 | League Two | #16 | 1521 | 1611 | 1444 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | at Barrow | L Newport County 34.2% · draw 31.4% | W ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Oldham | L Newport County 30.8% · draw 29.4% | W ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Cheltenham | L Newport County 28.7% · draw 29.3% | L ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Harrogate | W Newport County 43.3% · draw 29.8% | W ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | at Notts County | L Newport County 8.2% · draw 15.2% | L ✓ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | vs Crawley Town | W Newport County 35.0% · draw 31.2% | L ✗ |
| Mar 28, 2026 | vs Shrewsbury | W Newport County 35.3% · draw 31.1% | W ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Walsall | L Newport County 11.9% · draw 21.4% | L ✓ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | vs Bromley | L Newport County 20.8% · draw 23.3% | L ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at Barnet | L Newport County 6.3% · draw 14.2% | W ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The League Two title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/newport-county">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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