League Two 2026-2027: Gillingham vs Tranmere Prediction - 12 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Gillingham

Home Team
39%
VS

Tranmere

Away Team
30%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 23.3
Expected Spread: +0.1

Why the Model Leans Gillingham

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Gillingham
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.7 Tranmere
Results & dominance +2.0 Tranmere

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 56% for Gillingham. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Tranmere defense +2.3 Over
Gillingham attack & chance creation +0.8 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 50% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bristol Rvs 5 4 0 1 12 6 6 12
2 Swindon 5 3 1 1 8 6 2 10
3 Barnet 5 2 3 0 12 8 4 9
4 Tranmere 5 2 3 0 9 5 4 9
5 Walsall 5 2 3 0 8 4 4 9
6 Fleetwood Town 5 2 3 0 6 3 3 9
7 Crewe 5 2 3 0 5 3 2 9
8 Cheltenham 5 2 2 1 10 9 1 8
9 York 5 2 2 1 9 8 1 8
10 Oldham 5 2 1 2 7 5 2 7
11 Grimsby 5 1 4 0 7 6 1 7
12 Colchester 5 2 1 2 6 8 -2 7
13 Gillingham 5 1 3 1 6 6 0 6
14 Northampton 5 1 3 1 3 3 0 6
15 Salford 5 2 0 3 4 6 -2 6
16 Exeter 5 1 2 2 4 4 0 5
17 Chesterfield 5 1 2 2 6 7 -1 5
18 Rotherham 5 1 2 2 6 7 -1 5
19 Accrington 5 1 2 2 9 11 -2 5
20 Newport County 5 1 1 3 9 10 -1 4
21 Crawley Town 5 1 1 3 5 8 -3 4
22 Rochdale 5 1 0 4 5 10 -5 3
23 Shrewsbury 5 1 0 4 2 10 -8 3
24 Port Vale 5 0 2 3 2 7 -5 2

Recent Trends

Gillingham W D D D L

  • Last Match: W vs Rochdale (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Chesterfield (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Northampton (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Fleetwood Town (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Walsall (Goals: 0 - 3)

Tranmere W D D D W

  • Last Match: W vs Oldham (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Rotherham (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Newport County (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Port Vale (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Shrewsbury (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Gillingham

Goals scored (avg, home) 0.50
Goals conceded (avg, home) 2.00
Clean Sheets 1

Tranmere

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.50
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.50
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Gillingham a 39% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Tranmere at 30%. This is a tight call, with Gillingham only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 50% and sees both teams scoring in 53% of cases.

Match Analysis

Gillingham arrive with 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WDDDL from most recent), scoring 6 and conceding 6 with 1 clean sheet. Tranmere arrive with 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (WDDDW from most recent), scoring 9 and conceding 5 with 2 clean sheets. In the table Gillingham sit 13th with 6 points from 5 games and a level goal difference, while Tranmere are 4th with 9 points and a goal difference of +4. That puts Tranmere 3 points clear of their opponent. Gillingham average 0.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Tranmere average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Gillingham), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (3.7 points toward Tranmere), results & dominance (2.0 points toward Tranmere). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Gillingham
Goals in last 5 matches
Tranmere
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 50% and Over 2.5 at 50%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Gillingham matches produced 2.4 goals on average over their last 5, Tranmere matches 2.8. Both teams to score comes in at 53%, no goal for at least one side at 47%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Tranmere defense pulls toward Over by 2.3 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Gillingham
Corners in last 5 matches
Tranmere
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.3 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 55%, which leaves 45% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Gillingham
Shots in last 5 matches
Tranmere
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 23.3 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 23. The chance of 23 shots or fewer is 53%, which leaves 47% for 24 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Gillingham wins by X goals. Negative = Tranmere wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Gillingham vs Tranmere with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Gillingham vs Tranmere
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.1 goals in favour of Gillingham. The spread model gives 24% to a Gillingham win by two goals or more and 42% to any Tranmere win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Gillingham win (39%), Over 2.5 (50%), Goal (53%). Expected totals: 9.3 corners and 23.3 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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