League Two 2026-2027: Newport County vs Grimsby Prediction - 26 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Newport County

Home Team
23%
VS

Grimsby

Away Team
52%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 23.6
Expected Spread: -0.8

Why the Model Leans Grimsby

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Newport County
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +9.2 Grimsby
Results & dominance +8.6 Grimsby
Defense +7.0 Grimsby
Attack +5.3 Grimsby

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 69% for Grimsby. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Newport County attack & chance creation +1.6 Under
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +1.1 Over
Grimsby defense +0.9 Over
Grimsby attack & chance creation +0.7 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 50% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barnet 7 4 3 0 17 10 7 15
2 Walsall 7 3 4 0 10 4 6 13
3 Grimsby 7 3 4 0 11 6 5 13
4 Gillingham 7 3 3 1 11 6 5 12
5 Cheltenham 7 3 3 1 14 11 3 12
6 Bristol Rvs 7 4 0 3 12 11 1 12
7 York 7 3 2 2 13 10 3 11
8 Chesterfield 7 3 2 2 10 8 2 11
9 Crewe 7 2 5 0 7 5 2 11
10 Tranmere 7 2 4 1 9 7 2 10
11 Fleetwood Town 7 2 4 1 8 7 1 10
12 Salford 7 3 1 3 8 9 -1 10
13 Swindon 7 3 1 3 8 11 -3 10
14 Rotherham 7 2 3 2 10 10 0 9
15 Colchester 7 2 3 2 8 10 -2 9
16 Oldham 7 2 1 4 8 9 -1 7
17 Rochdale 7 2 1 4 7 10 -3 7
18 Shrewsbury 7 2 1 4 5 11 -6 7
19 Newport County 7 1 3 3 10 11 -1 6
20 Exeter 7 1 3 3 4 5 -1 6
21 Accrington 7 1 3 3 10 13 -3 6
22 Northampton 7 1 3 3 3 6 -3 6
23 Port Vale 7 1 2 4 3 9 -6 5
24 Crawley Town 7 1 1 5 6 13 -7 4

Recent Trends

Newport County D D L L D

  • Last Match: D vs Accrington (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Fleetwood Town (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Northampton (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Salford (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Tranmere (Goals: 2 - 2)

Grimsby W W D D D

  • Last Match: W vs Crawley Town (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Bristol Rvs (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Cheltenham (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Accrington (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Fleetwood Town (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Newport County

Goals scored (avg, home) 2.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.00
Clean Sheets 1

Grimsby

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.33
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.33
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Newport County a 23% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 25% and Grimsby at 52%. Grimsby are the favourite, but the gap to the other outcomes is modest. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 50% and sees both teams scoring in 53% of cases.

Match Analysis

Newport County arrive with 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (DDLLD from most recent), scoring 4 and conceding 6 with 1 clean sheet. Grimsby arrive with 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (WWDDD from most recent), scoring 10 and conceding 6 with 2 clean sheets. In the table Newport County sit 19th with 6 points from 7 games and a goal difference of -1, while Grimsby are 3rd with 13 points and a goal difference of +5. That puts Grimsby 7 points clear of their opponent. Newport County average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Grimsby average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Newport County), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (9.2 points toward Grimsby), results & dominance (8.6 points toward Grimsby). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Newport County
Goals in last 5 matches
Grimsby
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 50% and Over 2.5 at 50%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Newport County matches produced 2.0 goals on average over their last 5, Grimsby matches 3.2. Both teams to score comes in at 53%, no goal for at least one side at 47%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Newport County attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 1.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Newport County
Corners in last 5 matches
Grimsby
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.9 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 46%, which leaves 54% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Newport County
Shots in last 5 matches
Grimsby
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 23.6 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 23. The chance of 23 shots or fewer is 50%, which leaves 50% for 24 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Newport County wins by X goals. Negative = Grimsby wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Newport County vs Grimsby with expected spread of -0.8
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Newport County vs Grimsby
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.8 goals in favour of Grimsby. The spread model gives 12% to a Newport County win by two goals or more and 60% to any Grimsby win. A Grimsby win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Grimsby win (52%), Over 2.5 (50%), Goal (53%). Expected totals: 9.9 corners and 23.6 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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