Grimsby

League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1522 · #6 League Two 3W-4D-3L · 13 pts In line Updated Oct 10, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #7 of 24 66.7 expected pts · currently 13 pts after 10 matches

League title 1.8%
Promotion 22.7%
Automatic promotion 13.4%
Promotion playoffs 31.4%
Relegation 0.7%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full League Two simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Grimsby?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Grimsby's results were 8.1% harder to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.

MarketGrimsbyLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 41.5% 49.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 61.0% 52.1%
Both teams to score 51.2% 50.9%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 League Two #6 1610 1621 1522
2025-26 League Two #4 1522 1628 1619
2024-25 League Two #17 1445 1559 1469
2023-24 League Two #17 1483 1524 1446
2022-23 League Two #13 1438 1550 1488
2020-21 League Two #18 1488 1531 1444
2019-20 League Two #12 1490 1542 1507
2018-19 League Two #20 1427 1546 1440
2017-18 League Two #16 1525 1543 1454
2016-17 League Two #15 1473 1536 1477
2009-10 League Two #17 1433 1473 1449
2008-09 League Two #18 1423 1447 1429
2007-08 League Two #19 1487 1556 1399
2006-07 League Two #11 1571 1571 1488
2005-06 League Two #6 1527 1628 1572

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 10, 2026 at Port Vale W Grimsby 40.5% · draw 29.3% L ✗
Oct 03, 2026 vs Shrewsbury W Grimsby 63.2% · draw 22.1% L ✗
Sep 26, 2026 at Newport County W Grimsby 51.8% · draw 25.1% L ✗
Sep 19, 2026 vs Crawley Town W Grimsby 70.2% · draw 19.3% W ✓
Sep 12, 2026 vs Bristol Rvs W Grimsby 40.7% · draw 30.2% W ✓

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

The League Two title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit: 

Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/grimsby">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)

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