Grimsby
League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #7 of 24 in League Two 78 pts · 22W–12D–12L · GD +24
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League Two simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Grimsby?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Grimsby's results were 8.1% harder to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.
| Market | Grimsby | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 41.5% | 49.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 61.0% | 52.1% |
| Both teams to score | 51.2% | 50.9% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | League Two | #4 | 1522 | 1628 | 1619 |
| 2024-25 | League Two | #17 | 1445 | 1559 | 1469 |
| 2023-24 | League Two | #17 | 1483 | 1524 | 1446 |
| 2022-23 | League Two | #13 | 1438 | 1550 | 1488 |
| 2020-21 | League Two | #18 | 1488 | 1531 | 1444 |
| 2019-20 | League Two | #12 | 1490 | 1542 | 1507 |
| 2018-19 | League Two | #20 | 1427 | 1546 | 1440 |
| 2017-18 | League Two | #16 | 1525 | 1543 | 1454 |
| 2016-17 | League Two | #15 | 1473 | 1536 | 1477 |
| 2009-10 | League Two | #17 | 1433 | 1473 | 1449 |
| 2008-09 | League Two | #18 | 1423 | 1447 | 1429 |
| 2007-08 | League Two | #19 | 1487 | 1556 | 1399 |
| 2006-07 | League Two | #11 | 1571 | 1571 | 1488 |
| 2005-06 | League Two | #6 | 1527 | 1628 | 1572 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | at Tranmere | W Grimsby 47.7% · draw 26.7% | D ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Swindon | W Grimsby 54.0% · draw 26.4% | W ✓ |
| Apr 21, 2026 | at Cambridge | L Grimsby 23.6% · draw 29.8% | W ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Gillingham | W Grimsby 40.3% · draw 29.4% | W ✓ |
| Apr 14, 2026 | at Chesterfield | L Grimsby 33.3% · draw 31.2% | L ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Crewe | W Grimsby 62.4% · draw 24.2% | W ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | at Crawley Town | W Grimsby 43.2% · draw 28.6% | W ✓ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | vs Harrogate | W Grimsby 83.4% · draw 11.3% | L ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Barrow | W Grimsby 71.5% · draw 17.5% | W ✓ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | vs Fleetwood Town | W Grimsby 38.7% · draw 31.5% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The League Two title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/grimsby">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
<iframe src="https://www.predixsport.com/embed/title-odds/league_two"
width="360" height="430" style="border:0;border-radius:10px" loading="lazy"
title="League Two title odds & club ELO ratings — Predixsport"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/grimsby">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>