League Two 2026-2027: Oldham vs Accrington Prediction - 10 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Oldham

Home Team
41%
VS

Accrington

Away Team
28%
Draw: 30%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 24.9
Expected Spread: +0.2

Why the Model Leans Oldham

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Oldham
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.4 Accrington
Attack +1.7 Oldham
Results & dominance +1.3 Oldham

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 60% for Oldham. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Accrington defense +1.4 Over
Form & results +1.3 Over
Oldham defense +1.0 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Salford 9 5 1 3 13 10 3 16
2 Barnet 7 4 3 0 17 10 7 15
3 Crewe 9 3 6 0 11 7 4 15
4 Cheltenham 9 4 3 2 16 14 2 15
5 Bristol Rvs 9 5 0 4 14 14 0 15
6 York 8 4 2 2 16 10 6 14
7 Walsall 8 3 5 0 11 5 6 14
8 Chesterfield 9 4 2 3 15 12 3 14
9 Grimsby 9 3 4 2 13 10 3 13
10 Gillingham 9 3 4 2 11 9 2 13
11 Rochdale 9 4 1 4 10 11 -1 13
12 Tranmere 9 2 5 2 12 12 0 11
13 Swindon 9 3 2 4 9 13 -4 11
14 Shrewsbury 9 3 2 4 9 14 -5 11
15 Newport County 9 2 4 3 12 12 0 10
16 Accrington 9 2 4 3 13 14 -1 10
17 Rotherham 9 2 4 3 11 12 -1 10
18 Fleetwood Town 9 2 4 3 9 10 -1 10
19 Colchester 8 2 4 2 10 12 -2 10
20 Exeter 9 2 3 4 5 6 -1 9
21 Oldham 8 2 1 5 9 13 -4 7
22 Northampton 7 1 3 3 3 6 -3 6
23 Port Vale 7 1 2 4 3 9 -6 5
24 Crawley Town 7 1 1 5 6 13 -7 4

Recent Trends

Oldham L L L L D

  • Last Match: L vs Salford (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Rochdale (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Chesterfield (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Tranmere (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Fleetwood Town (Goals: 1 - 1)

Accrington W D D L W

  • Last Match: W vs Cheltenham (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Swindon (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Newport County (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Barnet (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Crawley Town (Goals: 3 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Oldham

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.75
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.50
Clean Sheets 0

Accrington

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.00
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Oldham a 41% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 30% and Accrington at 28%. This is a tight call, with Oldham only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 51% and sees both teams scoring in 52% of cases.

Match Analysis

Oldham arrive with 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLLLD from most recent), scoring 3 and conceding 11 with 0 clean sheets. Accrington arrive with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WDDLW from most recent), scoring 7 and conceding 5 with 2 clean sheets. In the table Oldham sit 21st with 7 points from 8 games and a goal difference of -4, while Accrington are 16th with 10 points and a goal difference of -1. That puts Accrington 3 points clear of their opponent. Oldham average 1.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over their last five home games, while Accrington average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Oldham), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (3.4 points toward Accrington), attack (1.7 points toward Oldham). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Oldham
Goals in last 5 matches
Accrington
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 49% and Over 2.5 at 51%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Oldham matches produced 2.8 goals on average over their last 5, Accrington matches 2.4. Both teams to score comes in at 52%, no goal for at least one side at 48%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Accrington defense pulls toward Over by 1.4 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Oldham
Corners in last 5 matches
Accrington
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.9 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 47%, which leaves 53% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Oldham
Shots in last 5 matches
Accrington
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 24.9 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 24. The chance of 24 shots or fewer is 49%, which leaves 52% for 25 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Oldham wins by X goals. Negative = Accrington wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Oldham vs Accrington with expected spread of +0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Oldham vs Accrington
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.2 goals in favour of Oldham. The spread model gives 25% to a Oldham win by two goals or more and 41% to any Accrington win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Oldham win (41%), Over 2.5 (51%), Goal (52%). Expected totals: 9.9 corners and 24.9 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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