Oldham
League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #10 of 24 in League Two 68 pts · 18W–14D–14L · GD +16
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League Two simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Oldham?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Oldham's results were 0.4% easier to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.
| Market | Oldham | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 41.5% | 49.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 53.7% | 52.1% |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | 50.9% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | League Two | #10 | 1502 | 1640 | 1509 |
| 2021-22 | League Two | #23 | 1413 | 1448 | 1358 |
| 2020-21 | League Two | #23 | 1443 | 1530 | 1416 |
| 2019-20 | League Two | #16 | 1476 | 1501 | 1465 |
| 2018-19 | League Two | #17 | 1485 | 1567 | 1487 |
| 2017-18 | League One | #20 | 1496 | 1536 | 1432 |
| 2016-17 | League One | #11 | 1462 | 1557 | 1532 |
| 2015-16 | League One | #14 | 1448 | 1518 | 1467 |
| 2014-15 | League One | #19 | 1508 | 1585 | 1430 |
| 2013-14 | League One | #10 | 1490 | 1512 | 1510 |
| 2012-13 | League One | #18 | 1435 | 1498 | 1460 |
| 2011-12 | League One | #18 | 1417 | 1506 | 1433 |
| 2010-11 | League One | #20 | 1483 | 1572 | 1430 |
| 2009-10 | League One | #20 | 1467 | 1517 | 1437 |
| 2008-09 | League One | #16 | 1542 | 1630 | 1464 |
| 2007-08 | League One | #10 | 1535 | 1576 | 1536 |
| 2006-07 | League One | #11 | 1449 | 1660 | 1516 |
| 2005-06 | League One | #18 | 1520 | 1567 | 1460 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | vs Accrington | W Oldham 53.7% · draw 25.3% | W ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Newport County | W Oldham 39.8% · draw 29.4% | L ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Salford | W Oldham 37.6% · draw 31.2% | L ✗ |
| Apr 14, 2026 | at Barrow | W Oldham 49.2% · draw 26.3% | L ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Shrewsbury | W Oldham 40.6% · draw 29.5% | L ✗ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs Milton Keynes Dons | L Oldham 32.8% · draw 31.1% | D ✗ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | at Colchester | L Oldham 31.7% · draw 31.6% | W ✗ |
| Mar 28, 2026 | at Crewe | L Oldham 32.4% · draw 31.2% | L ✓ |
| Mar 24, 2026 | vs Notts County | L Oldham 33.6% · draw 31.4% | W ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Harrogate | W Oldham 74.3% · draw 16.6% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The League Two title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/oldham">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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