Oldham

League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1420 · #22 League Two 2W-2D-5L · 8 pts In line Updated Oct 10, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #23 of 24 53.1 expected pts · currently 8 pts after 9 matches

League title 0.0%
Promotion 0.8%
Automatic promotion 0.3%
Promotion playoffs 2.9%
Relegation 21.2%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full League Two simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Oldham?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Oldham's results were 0.4% easier to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.

MarketOldhamLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 41.5% 49.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 53.7% 52.1%
Both teams to score 56.1% 50.9%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 League Two #22 1527 1531 1420
2025-26 League Two #10 1502 1640 1509
2021-22 League Two #23 1413 1448 1358
2020-21 League Two #23 1443 1530 1416
2019-20 League Two #16 1476 1501 1465
2018-19 League Two #17 1485 1567 1487
2017-18 League One #20 1496 1536 1432
2016-17 League One #11 1462 1557 1532
2015-16 League One #14 1448 1518 1467
2014-15 League One #19 1508 1585 1430
2013-14 League One #10 1490 1512 1510
2012-13 League One #18 1435 1498 1460
2011-12 League One #18 1417 1506 1433
2010-11 League One #20 1483 1572 1430
2009-10 League One #20 1467 1517 1437
2008-09 League One #16 1542 1630 1464
2007-08 League One #10 1535 1576 1536
2006-07 League One #11 1449 1660 1516
2005-06 League One #18 1520 1567 1460

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 10, 2026 vs Accrington W Oldham 41.5% · draw 30.4% D ✗
Sep 26, 2026 vs Salford W Oldham 36.5% · draw 31.1% L ✗
Sep 19, 2026 at Rochdale W Oldham 39.5% · draw 29.0% L ✗
Sep 12, 2026 vs Chesterfield W Oldham 42.9% · draw 30.0% L ✗

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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