Accrington
League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #16 of 24 in League Two 53 pts · 14W–11D–21L · GD -11
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League Two simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Accrington?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Accrington's results were 2.5% easier to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.
| Market | Accrington | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 56.1% | 49.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 61.0% | 52.1% |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | 50.9% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | League Two | #22 | 1498 | 1570 | 1382 |
| 2024-25 | League Two | #19 | 1444 | 1482 | 1446 |
| 2023-24 | League Two | #19 | 1640 | 1642 | 1442 |
| 2022-23 | League One | #21 | 1479 | 1507 | 1389 |
| 2021-22 | League One | #14 | 1491 | 1529 | 1475 |
| 2020-21 | League One | #13 | 1470 | 1590 | 1484 |
| 2019-20 | League One | #21 | 1440 | 1520 | 1417 |
| 2018-19 | League One | #18 | 1465 | 1590 | 1446 |
| 2017-18 | League Two | #1 | 1571 | 1733 | 1658 |
| 2016-17 | League Two | #5 | 1595 | 1599 | 1566 |
| 2015-16 | League Two | #3 | 1465 | 1644 | 1644 |
| 2014-15 | League Two | #18 | 1500 | 1532 | 1458 |
| 2013-14 | League Two | #9 | 1466 | 1540 | 1532 |
| 2012-13 | League Two | #14 | 1499 | 1534 | 1487 |
| 2011-12 | League Two | #21 | 1545 | 1609 | 1418 |
| 2010-11 | League Two | #3 | 1419 | 1606 | 1603 |
| 2009-10 | League Two | #22 | 1449 | 1604 | 1398 |
| 2008-09 | League Two | #19 | 1377 | 1462 | 1427 |
| 2007-08 | League Two | #23 | 1460 | 1483 | 1371 |
| 2006-07 | League Two | #15 | 1447 | 1540 | 1460 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | at Oldham | L Accrington 21.0% · draw 25.3% | L ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Crawley Town | L Accrington 33.2% · draw 32.1% | D ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Swindon | L Accrington 22.7% · draw 26.6% | D ✗ |
| Apr 14, 2026 | at Colchester | L Accrington 17.7% · draw 24.0% | L ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Fleetwood Town | L Accrington 33.1% · draw 31.6% | L ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | at Gillingham | L Accrington 29.7% · draw 31.9% | L ✓ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | vs Crewe | L Accrington 30.6% · draw 30.6% | W ✗ |
| Mar 28, 2026 | at Bristol Rvs | L Accrington 24.0% · draw 27.4% | L ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Chesterfield | L Accrington 27.0% · draw 28.5% | L ✓ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | vs Notts County | L Accrington 29.0% · draw 29.8% | L ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The League Two title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/accrington">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/accrington">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>