League Two 2026-2027: Oldham vs Chesterfield Prediction - 12 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Oldham

Home Team
43%
VS

Chesterfield

Away Team
27%
Draw: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 25.3
Expected Spread: +0.3

Why the Model Leans Oldham

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Oldham
Attack +2.1 Oldham
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +0.8 Chesterfield
Defense +0.7 Chesterfield
Results & dominance +0.7 Chesterfield

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 61% for Oldham. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Oldham defense +2.1 Under
Chesterfield attack & chance creation +1.8 Under
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +1.5 Over
Oldham attack & chance creation +0.9 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 56% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bristol Rvs 5 4 0 1 12 6 6 12
2 Swindon 5 3 1 1 8 6 2 10
3 Barnet 5 2 3 0 12 8 4 9
4 Tranmere 5 2 3 0 9 5 4 9
5 Walsall 5 2 3 0 8 4 4 9
6 Fleetwood Town 5 2 3 0 6 3 3 9
7 Crewe 5 2 3 0 5 3 2 9
8 Cheltenham 5 2 2 1 10 9 1 8
9 York 5 2 2 1 9 8 1 8
10 Oldham 5 2 1 2 7 5 2 7
11 Grimsby 5 1 4 0 7 6 1 7
12 Colchester 5 2 1 2 6 8 -2 7
13 Gillingham 5 1 3 1 6 6 0 6
14 Northampton 5 1 3 1 3 3 0 6
15 Salford 5 2 0 3 4 6 -2 6
16 Exeter 5 1 2 2 4 4 0 5
17 Chesterfield 5 1 2 2 6 7 -1 5
18 Rotherham 5 1 2 2 6 7 -1 5
19 Accrington 5 1 2 2 9 11 -2 5
20 Newport County 5 1 1 3 9 10 -1 4
21 Crawley Town 5 1 1 3 5 8 -3 4
22 Rochdale 5 1 0 4 5 10 -5 3
23 Shrewsbury 5 1 0 4 2 10 -8 3
24 Port Vale 5 0 2 3 2 7 -5 2

Recent Trends

Oldham L D W L W

  • Last Match: L vs Tranmere (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Fleetwood Town (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Swindon (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Colchester (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Port Vale (Goals: 2 - 0)

Chesterfield D D L W L

  • Last Match: D vs Barnet (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Gillingham (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Rotherham (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Salford (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Fleetwood Town (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Oldham

Goals scored (avg, home) 2.50
Goals conceded (avg, home) 0.00
Clean Sheets 2

Chesterfield

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.00
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Oldham a 43% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 30% and Chesterfield at 27%. This is a tight call, with Oldham only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 56% and sees both teams scoring in 52% of cases.

Match Analysis

Oldham arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LDWLW from most recent), scoring 7 and conceding 5 with 2 clean sheets. Chesterfield arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (DDLWL from most recent), scoring 6 and conceding 7 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Oldham sit 10th with 7 points from 5 games and a goal difference of +2, while Chesterfield are 17th with 5 points and a goal difference of -1. That puts Oldham 2 points clear of their opponent. Oldham average 2.5 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Chesterfield average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Oldham), attack (2.1 points toward Oldham), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (0.8 points toward Chesterfield). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Oldham
Goals in last 5 matches
Chesterfield
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 56% and Over 2.5 at 44%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Oldham matches produced 2.4 goals on average over their last 5, Chesterfield matches 2.6. Both teams to score comes in at 52%, no goal for at least one side at 48%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Oldham defense pulls toward Under by 2.1 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Oldham
Corners in last 5 matches
Chesterfield
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.4 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 54%, which leaves 46% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Oldham
Shots in last 5 matches
Chesterfield
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.3 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 53%, which leaves 47% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Oldham wins by X goals. Negative = Chesterfield wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Oldham vs Chesterfield with expected spread of +0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Oldham vs Chesterfield
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.3 goals in favour of Oldham. The spread model gives 27% to a Oldham win by two goals or more and 38% to any Chesterfield win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Oldham win (43%), Under 2.5 (56%), Goal (52%). Expected totals: 9.4 corners and 25.3 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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