League Two 2026-2027: Oldham vs Salford Prediction - 26 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Oldham

Home Team
37%
VS

Salford

Away Team
32%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 24.4
Expected Spread: -0.1

Why the Model Leans Oldham

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Oldham
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +4.8 Salford
Results & dominance +2.2 Salford
Attack +1.7 Salford

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Oldham. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Oldham defense +2.5 Under
Salford defense +1.5 Over
Form & results +0.6 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 54% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barnet 7 4 3 0 17 10 7 15
2 Walsall 7 3 4 0 10 4 6 13
3 Grimsby 7 3 4 0 11 6 5 13
4 Gillingham 7 3 3 1 11 6 5 12
5 Cheltenham 7 3 3 1 14 11 3 12
6 Bristol Rvs 7 4 0 3 12 11 1 12
7 York 7 3 2 2 13 10 3 11
8 Chesterfield 7 3 2 2 10 8 2 11
9 Crewe 7 2 5 0 7 5 2 11
10 Tranmere 7 2 4 1 9 7 2 10
11 Fleetwood Town 7 2 4 1 8 7 1 10
12 Salford 7 3 1 3 8 9 -1 10
13 Swindon 7 3 1 3 8 11 -3 10
14 Rotherham 7 2 3 2 10 10 0 9
15 Colchester 7 2 3 2 8 10 -2 9
16 Oldham 7 2 1 4 8 9 -1 7
17 Rochdale 7 2 1 4 7 10 -3 7
18 Shrewsbury 7 2 1 4 5 11 -6 7
19 Newport County 7 1 3 3 10 11 -1 6
20 Exeter 7 1 3 3 4 5 -1 6
21 Accrington 7 1 3 3 10 13 -3 6
22 Northampton 7 1 3 3 3 6 -3 6
23 Port Vale 7 1 2 4 3 9 -6 5
24 Crawley Town 7 1 1 5 6 13 -7 4

Recent Trends

Oldham L L L D W

  • Last Match: L vs Rochdale (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Chesterfield (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Tranmere (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Fleetwood Town (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Swindon (Goals: 3 - 0)

Salford W D W W L

  • Last Match: W vs Swindon (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Rotherham (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Port Vale (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Newport County (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Shrewsbury (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Oldham

Goals scored (avg, home) 2.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 0.67
Clean Sheets 1

Salford

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.33
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.33
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Oldham a 37% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Salford at 32%. This is a tight call, with Oldham only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 54% and sees both teams scoring in 53% of cases.

Match Analysis

Oldham arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLLDW from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 7 with 1 clean sheet. Salford arrive with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WDWWL from most recent), scoring 7 and conceding 5 with 2 clean sheets. In the table Oldham sit 16th with 7 points from 7 games and a goal difference of -1, while Salford are 12th with 10 points and a goal difference of -1. That puts Salford 3 points clear of their opponent. Oldham average 2.0 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over their last five home games, while Salford average 1.3 scored and 2.3 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Oldham), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (4.8 points toward Salford), results & dominance (2.2 points toward Salford). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Oldham
Goals in last 5 matches
Salford
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 54% and Over 2.5 at 46%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Oldham matches produced 2.4 goals on average over their last 5, Salford matches 2.4. Both teams to score comes in at 53%, no goal for at least one side at 47%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Oldham defense pulls toward Under by 2.5 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Oldham
Corners in last 5 matches
Salford
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.7 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 49%, which leaves 51% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Oldham
Shots in last 5 matches
Salford
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 24.4 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 24. The chance of 24 shots or fewer is 52%, which leaves 48% for 25 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Oldham wins by X goals. Negative = Salford wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Oldham vs Salford with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Oldham vs Salford
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.1 goals in favour of Salford. The spread model gives 22% to a Oldham win by two goals or more and 45% to any Salford win. A Salford win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Oldham win (37%), Under 2.5 (54%), Goal (53%). Expected totals: 9.7 corners and 24.4 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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