Salford
League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #4 of 24 in League Two 81 pts · 25W–6D–15L · GD +10
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League Two simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Salford?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Salford's results were 0.2% harder to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.
| Market | Salford | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 56.1% | 49.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 48.8% | 52.1% |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | 50.9% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | League Two | #7 | 1499 | 1629 | 1606 |
| 2024-25 | League Two | #6 | 1428 | 1580 | 1543 |
| 2023-24 | League Two | #21 | 1574 | 1574 | 1436 |
| 2022-23 | League Two | #8 | 1567 | 1620 | 1556 |
| 2021-22 | League Two | #9 | 1545 | 1636 | 1556 |
| 2020-21 | League Two | #4 | 1524 | 1592 | 1564 |
| 2019-20 | League Two | #9 | 1526 | 1545 | 1532 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | at Crawley Town | W Salford 37.2% · draw 31.0% | D ✗ |
| Apr 23, 2026 | vs Bromley | W Salford 45.0% · draw 29.2% | W ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Oldham | L Salford 31.2% · draw 31.2% | W ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Gillingham | W Salford 53.5% · draw 25.8% | D ✗ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | at Crewe | W Salford 35.8% · draw 30.8% | L ✗ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | vs Notts County | W Salford 35.2% · draw 31.5% | W ✓ |
| Mar 28, 2026 | vs Milton Keynes Dons | W Salford 35.5% · draw 31.3% | W ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Cambridge | L Salford 21.0% · draw 28.5% | L ✓ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | vs Barrow | W Salford 72.5% · draw 17.3% | W ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at Harrogate | W Salford 52.2% · draw 24.1% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The League Two title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/salford">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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