Salford
League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #2 of 24 77.8 expected pts · currently 19 pts after 10 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full League Two simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #4 of 24 in League Two 81 pts · 25W-6D-15L · GD +10
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League Two simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Salford?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Salford's results were 0.2% harder to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.
| Market | Salford | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 56.1% | 49.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 48.8% | 52.1% |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | 50.9% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | League Two | #2 | 1564 | 1613 | 1613 |
| 2025-26 | League Two | #7 | 1499 | 1629 | 1606 |
| 2024-25 | League Two | #6 | 1428 | 1580 | 1543 |
| 2023-24 | League Two | #21 | 1574 | 1574 | 1436 |
| 2022-23 | League Two | #8 | 1567 | 1620 | 1556 |
| 2021-22 | League Two | #9 | 1545 | 1636 | 1556 |
| 2020-21 | League Two | #4 | 1524 | 1592 | 1564 |
| 2019-20 | League Two | #9 | 1526 | 1545 | 1532 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | at Cheltenham | W Salford 47.5% · draw 26.8% | W ✓ |
| Oct 03, 2026 | vs Fleetwood Town | W Salford 52.3% · draw 27.0% | W ✓ |
| Sep 26, 2026 | at Oldham | L Salford 32.4% · draw 31.1% | W ✗ |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Swindon | W Salford 60.2% · draw 24.2% | W ✓ |
| Sep 12, 2026 | at Rotherham | L Salford 34.2% · draw 31.0% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/salford">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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