League Two 2026-2027: Port Vale vs Exeter Prediction - 12 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Port Vale

Home Team
43%
VS

Exeter

Away Team
27%
Draw: 30%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 44%
No Goal: 56%
Expected Corners: 8.9
Expected Shots: 23.3
Expected Spread: +0.2

Why the Model Leans Port Vale

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Port Vale
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +7.5 Exeter
Defense +5.3 Port Vale
Attack +1.7 Port Vale

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 61% for Port Vale. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Exeter defense +2.8 Over
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Port Vale attack & chance creation +2.4 Under
Port Vale defense +1.7 Under
Exeter attack & chance creation +1.4 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bristol Rvs 5 4 0 1 12 6 6 12
2 Swindon 5 3 1 1 8 6 2 10
3 Barnet 5 2 3 0 12 8 4 9
4 Tranmere 5 2 3 0 9 5 4 9
5 Walsall 5 2 3 0 8 4 4 9
6 Fleetwood Town 5 2 3 0 6 3 3 9
7 Crewe 5 2 3 0 5 3 2 9
8 Cheltenham 5 2 2 1 10 9 1 8
9 York 5 2 2 1 9 8 1 8
10 Oldham 5 2 1 2 7 5 2 7
11 Grimsby 5 1 4 0 7 6 1 7
12 Colchester 5 2 1 2 6 8 -2 7
13 Gillingham 5 1 3 1 6 6 0 6
14 Northampton 5 1 3 1 3 3 0 6
15 Salford 5 2 0 3 4 6 -2 6
16 Exeter 5 1 2 2 4 4 0 5
17 Chesterfield 5 1 2 2 6 7 -1 5
18 Rotherham 5 1 2 2 6 7 -1 5
19 Accrington 5 1 2 2 9 11 -2 5
20 Newport County 5 1 1 3 9 10 -1 4
21 Crawley Town 5 1 1 3 5 8 -3 4
22 Rochdale 5 1 0 4 5 10 -5 3
23 Shrewsbury 5 1 0 4 2 10 -8 3
24 Port Vale 5 0 2 3 2 7 -5 2

Recent Trends

Port Vale L L D D L

  • Last Match: L vs Salford (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Swindon (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Crewe (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Tranmere (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Oldham (Goals: 0 - 2)

Exeter D D L W L

  • Last Match: D vs Walsall (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Barnet (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs York (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Accrington (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Grimsby (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Port Vale

Goals scored (avg, home) 0.50
Goals conceded (avg, home) 0.50
Clean Sheets 1

Exeter

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.50
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.50
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Port Vale a 43% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 30% and Exeter at 27%. This is a tight call, with Port Vale only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 53% and sees both teams scoring in 44% of cases.

Match Analysis

Port Vale arrive with 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLDDL from most recent), scoring 2 and conceding 7 with 1 clean sheet. Exeter arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (DDLWL from most recent), scoring 4 and conceding 4 with 2 clean sheets. In the table Port Vale sit 24th with 2 points from 5 games and a goal difference of -5, while Exeter are 16th with 5 points and a level goal difference. That puts Exeter 3 points clear of their opponent. Port Vale average 0.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over their last five home games, while Exeter average 0.5 scored and 1.5 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Port Vale), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (7.5 points toward Exeter), defense (5.3 points toward Port Vale). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Port Vale
Goals in last 5 matches
Exeter
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 53% and Over 2.5 at 47%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Port Vale matches produced 1.8 goals on average over their last 5, Exeter matches 1.6. Both teams to score comes in at 44%, no goal for at least one side at 56%. In the model's own attribution, Exeter defense pulls toward Over by 2.8 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Port Vale
Corners in last 5 matches
Exeter
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 8.9 corners in total. The single most likely count is 8. The chance of 8 corners or fewer is 47%, which leaves 53% for 9 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Port Vale
Shots in last 5 matches
Exeter
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 23.3 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 23. The chance of 23 shots or fewer is 53%, which leaves 47% for 24 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Port Vale wins by X goals. Negative = Exeter wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Port Vale vs Exeter with expected spread of +0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Port Vale vs Exeter
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.2 goals in favour of Port Vale. The spread model gives 25% to a Port Vale win by two goals or more and 41% to any Exeter win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Port Vale win (43%), Under 2.5 (53%), No Goal (56%). Expected totals: 8.9 corners and 23.3 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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