Port Vale
League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #16 of 24 57.6 expected pts · currently 8 pts after 8 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full League Two simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #22 of 24 in League One 42 pts · 10W-12D-24L · GD -25
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League One simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Port Vale?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Port Vale's results were 2.6% harder to call than the League One average. How this is measured.
| Market | Port Vale | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 43.9% | 47.2% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 65.8% | 53.2% |
| Both teams to score | 61.0% | 54.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | League Two | #9 | 1532 | 1532 | 1507 |
| 2025-26 | League One | #16 | 1482 | 1502 | 1459 |
| 2024-25 | League Two | #2 | 1594 | 1659 | 1572 |
| 2023-24 | League One | #24 | 1377 | 1508 | 1320 |
| 2022-23 | League One | #23 | 1440 | 1547 | 1357 |
| 2021-22 | League Two | #4 | 1497 | 1666 | 1592 |
| 2020-21 | League Two | #12 | 1597 | 1625 | 1517 |
| 2019-20 | League Two | #5 | 1423 | 1606 | 1601 |
| 2018-19 | League Two | #23 | 1463 | 1487 | 1396 |
| 2017-18 | League Two | #21 | 1564 | 1564 | 1416 |
| 2016-17 | League One | #20 | 1500 | 1540 | 1408 |
| 2015-16 | League One | #11 | 1423 | 1542 | 1492 |
| 2014-15 | League One | #22 | 1454 | 1526 | 1399 |
| 2013-14 | League One | #16 | 1436 | 1532 | 1448 |
| 2012-13 | League Two | #7 | 1506 | 1651 | 1557 |
| 2011-12 | League Two | #11 | 1450 | 1537 | 1521 |
| 2010-11 | League Two | #19 | 1563 | 1637 | 1438 |
| 2009-10 | League Two | #5 | 1430 | 1582 | 1550 |
| 2008-09 | League Two | #21 | 1533 | 1533 | 1414 |
| 2007-08 | League One | #18 | 1463 | 1463 | 1418 |
| 2006-07 | League One | #18 | 1507 | 1572 | 1455 |
| 2005-06 | League One | #15 | 1529 | 1559 | 1479 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
The League Two title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/port-vale">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/port-vale">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>