Exeter

League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1554 · #5 League Two 3W-3D-4L · 12 pts In line Updated Oct 10, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #10 of 24 62.9 expected pts · currently 12 pts after 10 matches

League title 0.5%
Promotion 10.8%
Automatic promotion 5.5%
Promotion playoffs 20.7%
Relegation 2.0%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full League Two simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Exeter?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Exeter's results were 2.7% easier to call than the League One average. How this is measured.

MarketExeterLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 51.2% 47.2%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 53.7% 53.2%
Both teams to score 56.1% 54.4%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 League Two #5 1580 1588 1554
2025-26 League One #20 1482 1559 1416
2024-25 League One #18 1551 1577 1420
2023-24 League One #10 1502 1570 1537
2022-23 League One #15 1414 1522 1457
2021-22 League Two #2 1540 1684 1623
2020-21 League Two #6 1548 1608 1558
2019-20 League Two #7 1518 1649 1558
2018-19 League Two #15 1565 1625 1503
2017-18 League Two #5 1540 1638 1557
2016-17 League Two #8 1494 1650 1530
2015-16 League Two #10 1519 1607 1519
2014-15 League Two #11 1475 1606 1501
2013-14 League Two #13 1475 1533 1469
2012-13 League Two #21 1541 1638 1439
2011-12 League One #23 1557 1557 1387
2010-11 League One #6 1478 1570 1570
2009-10 League One #14 1490 1510 1475
2008-09 League Two #2 1502 1608 1608

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 10, 2026 at Shrewsbury L Exeter 30.2% · draw 31.3% W ✗
Oct 03, 2026 vs Rotherham W Exeter 37.0% · draw 32.0% W ✓
Sep 26, 2026 at Bristol Rvs L Exeter 15.8% · draw 23.4% L ✓
Sep 19, 2026 vs Tranmere W Exeter 40.6% · draw 31.2% D ✗
Sep 12, 2026 at Port Vale L Exeter 27.3% · draw 30.0% L ✓

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

The League Two title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit: 

Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/exeter">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)

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