Exeter
League One · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #21 of 24 in League One 49 pts · 12W–13D–21L · GD -9
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League One simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Exeter?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Exeter's results were 2.7% easier to call than the League One average. How this is measured.
| Market | Exeter | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 51.2% | 47.2% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 53.7% | 53.2% |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | 54.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | League One | #20 | 1482 | 1559 | 1416 |
| 2024-25 | League One | #18 | 1551 | 1577 | 1420 |
| 2023-24 | League One | #10 | 1502 | 1570 | 1537 |
| 2022-23 | League One | #15 | 1414 | 1522 | 1457 |
| 2021-22 | League Two | #2 | 1540 | 1684 | 1623 |
| 2020-21 | League Two | #6 | 1548 | 1608 | 1558 |
| 2019-20 | League Two | #7 | 1518 | 1649 | 1558 |
| 2018-19 | League Two | #15 | 1565 | 1625 | 1503 |
| 2017-18 | League Two | #5 | 1540 | 1638 | 1557 |
| 2016-17 | League Two | #8 | 1494 | 1650 | 1530 |
| 2015-16 | League Two | #10 | 1519 | 1607 | 1519 |
| 2014-15 | League Two | #11 | 1475 | 1606 | 1501 |
| 2013-14 | League Two | #13 | 1475 | 1533 | 1469 |
| 2012-13 | League Two | #21 | 1541 | 1638 | 1439 |
| 2011-12 | League One | #23 | 1557 | 1557 | 1387 |
| 2010-11 | League One | #6 | 1478 | 1570 | 1570 |
| 2009-10 | League One | #14 | 1490 | 1510 | 1475 |
| 2008-09 | League Two | #2 | 1502 | 1608 | 1608 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | vs Bradford | L Exeter 26.7% · draw 27.4% | L ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Burton | L Exeter 19.7% · draw 26.5% | D ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Stockport | L Exeter 26.7% · draw 27.6% | D ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Plymouth | L Exeter 18.1% · draw 23.9% | D ✗ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs Doncaster | L Exeter 32.6% · draw 30.9% | W ✗ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | at Blackpool | L Exeter 28.0% · draw 29.0% | L ✓ |
| Mar 28, 2026 | vs Leyton Orient | L Exeter 33.8% · draw 31.1% | D ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Wigan | L Exeter 21.1% · draw 28.1% | L ✓ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | at Luton | L Exeter 18.2% · draw 24.6% | L ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Cardiff | L Exeter 23.8% · draw 24.4% | L ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The League One title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/exeter">League One title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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