League Two 2026-2027: Rochdale vs Oldham Prediction - 19 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Rochdale

Home Team
31%
VS

Oldham

Away Team
40%
Draw: 29%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 23.4
Expected Spread: -0.4

Why the Model Leans Oldham

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Rochdale
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +6.5 Oldham
Results & dominance +4.6 Oldham
Defense +2.8 Oldham
Attack +2.8 Oldham

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 56% for Oldham. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Rochdale attack & chance creation +5.4 Under
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +1.5 Over
Form & results +0.9 Under
Oldham defense +0.9 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 55% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barnet 6 3 3 0 14 9 5 12
2 Bristol Rvs 6 4 0 2 12 8 4 12
3 York 6 3 2 1 13 8 5 11
4 Cheltenham 6 3 2 1 13 10 3 11
5 Walsall 6 2 4 0 8 4 4 10
6 Grimsby 6 2 4 0 9 6 3 10
7 Fleetwood Town 6 2 4 0 7 4 3 10
8 Crewe 6 2 4 0 6 4 2 10
9 Swindon 6 3 1 2 8 10 -2 10
10 Tranmere 6 2 3 1 9 7 2 9
11 Gillingham 6 2 3 1 8 6 2 9
12 Chesterfield 6 2 2 2 8 8 0 8
13 Colchester 6 2 2 2 7 9 -2 8
14 Oldham 6 2 1 3 8 7 1 7
15 Salford 6 2 1 3 7 9 -2 7
16 Rotherham 6 1 3 2 9 10 -1 6
17 Northampton 6 1 3 2 3 5 -2 6
18 Shrewsbury 6 2 0 4 4 10 -6 6
19 Newport County 6 1 2 3 10 11 -1 5
20 Exeter 6 1 2 3 4 5 -1 5
21 Accrington 6 1 2 3 10 13 -3 5
22 Port Vale 6 1 2 3 3 7 -4 5
23 Crawley Town 6 1 1 4 6 11 -5 4
24 Rochdale 6 1 1 4 5 10 -5 4

Recent Trends

Rochdale D L W L L

  • Last Match: D vs Walsall (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Gillingham (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Shrewsbury (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Colchester (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Crawley Town (Goals: 1 - 2)

Oldham L L D W L

  • Last Match: L vs Chesterfield (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Tranmere (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Fleetwood Town (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Swindon (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Colchester (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Rochdale

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.67
Goals conceded (avg, home) 2.00
Clean Sheets 2

Oldham

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.67
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.67
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Rochdale a 31% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 29% and Oldham at 40%. This is a tight call, with Oldham only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 55% and sees both teams scoring in 50% of cases.

Match Analysis

Rochdale arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (DLWLL from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 7 with 2 clean sheets. Oldham arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLDWL from most recent), scoring 6 and conceding 7 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Rochdale sit 24th with 4 points from 6 games and a goal difference of -5, while Oldham are 14th with 7 points and a goal difference of +1. That puts Oldham 3 points clear of their opponent. Rochdale average 1.7 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Oldham average 0.7 scored and 1.7 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Rochdale), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (6.5 points toward Oldham), results & dominance (4.6 points toward Oldham). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Rochdale
Goals in last 5 matches
Oldham
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 55% and Over 2.5 at 45%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Rochdale matches produced 2.4 goals on average over their last 5, Oldham matches 2.6. Both teams to score comes in at 50%, no goal for at least one side at 50%. In the model's own attribution, Rochdale attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 5.4 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Rochdale
Corners in last 5 matches
Oldham
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.8 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 48%, which leaves 52% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Rochdale
Shots in last 5 matches
Oldham
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 23.4 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 23. The chance of 23 shots or fewer is 52%, which leaves 48% for 24 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Rochdale wins by X goals. Negative = Oldham wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Rochdale vs Oldham with expected spread of -0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Rochdale vs Oldham
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.4 goals in favour of Oldham. The spread model gives 18% to a Rochdale win by two goals or more and 51% to any Oldham win. An Oldham win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Oldham win (40%), Under 2.5 (55%), Goal (50%). Expected totals: 9.8 corners and 23.4 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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