League Two 2026-2027: Rotherham vs Crewe Prediction - 26 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Rotherham

Home Team
39%
VS

Crewe

Away Team
30%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 25.4
Expected Spread: +0.1

Why the Model Leans Rotherham

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Rotherham
Results & dominance +3.7 Crewe
Defense +2.0 Rotherham
Attack +1.6 Crewe
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.3 Crewe

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 56% for Rotherham. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Crewe defense +1.7 Over
Rotherham attack & chance creation +1.5 Under
Crewe attack & chance creation +1.2 Under
Rotherham defense +1.1 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barnet 7 4 3 0 17 10 7 15
2 Walsall 7 3 4 0 10 4 6 13
3 Grimsby 7 3 4 0 11 6 5 13
4 Gillingham 7 3 3 1 11 6 5 12
5 Cheltenham 7 3 3 1 14 11 3 12
6 Bristol Rvs 7 4 0 3 12 11 1 12
7 York 7 3 2 2 13 10 3 11
8 Chesterfield 7 3 2 2 10 8 2 11
9 Crewe 7 2 5 0 7 5 2 11
10 Tranmere 7 2 4 1 9 7 2 10
11 Fleetwood Town 7 2 4 1 8 7 1 10
12 Salford 7 3 1 3 8 9 -1 10
13 Swindon 7 3 1 3 8 11 -3 10
14 Rotherham 7 2 3 2 10 10 0 9
15 Colchester 7 2 3 2 8 10 -2 9
16 Oldham 7 2 1 4 8 9 -1 7
17 Rochdale 7 2 1 4 7 10 -3 7
18 Shrewsbury 7 2 1 4 5 11 -6 7
19 Newport County 7 1 3 3 10 11 -1 6
20 Exeter 7 1 3 3 4 5 -1 6
21 Accrington 7 1 3 3 10 13 -3 6
22 Northampton 7 1 3 3 3 6 -3 6
23 Port Vale 7 1 2 4 3 9 -6 5
24 Crawley Town 7 1 1 5 6 13 -7 4

Recent Trends

Rotherham W D L D W

  • Last Match: W vs Northampton (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Salford (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Bristol Rvs (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Tranmere (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Chesterfield (Goals: 2 - 1)

Crewe D D D D D

  • Last Match: D vs Shrewsbury (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Colchester (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs York (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Walsall (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Port Vale (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Rotherham

Goals scored (avg, home) 2.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.67
Clean Sheets 1

Crewe

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.67
Goals conceded (avg, away) 0.33
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Rotherham a 39% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Crewe at 30%. This is a tight call, with Rotherham only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 53% and sees both teams scoring in 52% of cases.

Match Analysis

Rotherham arrive with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WDLDW from most recent), scoring 8 and conceding 7 with 1 clean sheet. Crewe arrive with 0 wins, 5 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (DDDDD from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 5 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Rotherham sit 14th with 9 points from 7 games and a level goal difference, while Crewe are 9th with 11 points and a goal difference of +2. That puts Crewe 2 points clear of their opponent. Rotherham average 2.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over their last five home games, while Crewe average 0.7 scored and 0.3 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Rotherham), results & dominance (3.7 points toward Crewe), defense (2.0 points toward Rotherham). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Rotherham
Goals in last 5 matches
Crewe
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 53% and Over 2.5 at 47%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Rotherham matches produced 3.0 goals on average over their last 5, Crewe matches 2.0. Both teams to score comes in at 52%, no goal for at least one side at 48%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Crewe defense pulls toward Over by 1.7 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Rotherham
Corners in last 5 matches
Crewe
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.6 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 51%, which leaves 49% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Rotherham
Shots in last 5 matches
Crewe
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.4 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 52%, which leaves 48% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Rotherham wins by X goals. Negative = Crewe wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Rotherham vs Crewe with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Rotherham vs Crewe
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.1 goals in favour of Rotherham. The spread model gives 24% to a Rotherham win by two goals or more and 42% to any Crewe win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Rotherham win (39%), Under 2.5 (53%), Goal (52%). Expected totals: 9.6 corners and 25.4 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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