Rotherham

League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1507 · #10 League Two 2W-4D-4L · 10 pts In line Updated Oct 10, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #15 of 24 58.5 expected pts · currently 10 pts after 10 matches

League title 0.1%
Promotion 3.8%
Automatic promotion 1.6%
Promotion playoffs 9.9%
Relegation 7.1%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full League Two simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Rotherham?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Rotherham's results were 4.8% easier to call than the League One average. How this is measured.

MarketRotherhamLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 56.1% 47.2%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 48.8% 53.2%
Both teams to score 51.2% 54.4%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 League Two #10 1557 1575 1507
2025-26 League One #23 1518 1542 1358
2024-25 League One #10 1546 1546 1489
2023-24 Championship #24 1428 1437 1310
2022-23 Championship #17 1397 1479 1440
2021-22 League One #8 1593 1717 1584
2020-21 Championship #22 1421 1463 1370
2019-20 League One #4 1597 1658 1606
2018-19 Championship #23 1324 1425 1352
2017-18 League One #3 1602 1668 1594
2016-17 Championship #24 1475 1475 1289
2015-16 Championship #17 1415 1534 1470
2014-15 Championship #20 1488 1505 1431
2013-14 League One #2 1400 1695 1655
2012-13 League Two #1 1529 1610 1610
2011-12 League Two #10 1497 1573 1522
2010-11 League Two #15 1497 1602 1473
2009-10 League Two #11 1512 1589 1478
2008-09 League Two #10 1516 1598 1498
2007-08 League Two #9 1500 1636 1498
2006-07 League One #23 1472 1550 1368
2005-06 League One #13 1471 1553 1501

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 10, 2026 vs Gillingham W Rotherham 42.7% · draw 30.8% L ✗
Oct 03, 2026 at Exeter L Rotherham 31.0% · draw 32.0% L ✓
Sep 26, 2026 vs Crewe W Rotherham 38.9% · draw 31.1% D ✗
Sep 19, 2026 at Northampton L Rotherham 27.1% · draw 30.2% W ✗
Sep 12, 2026 vs Salford W Rotherham 34.7% · draw 31.0% D ✗

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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