Rotherham
League One · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #23 of 24 in League One 41 pts · 10W–11D–25L · GD -30
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League One simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Rotherham?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Rotherham's results were 4.8% easier to call than the League One average. How this is measured.
| Market | Rotherham | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 56.1% | 47.2% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 48.8% | 53.2% |
| Both teams to score | 51.2% | 54.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | League One | #23 | 1518 | 1542 | 1358 |
| 2024-25 | League One | #10 | 1546 | 1546 | 1489 |
| 2023-24 | Championship | #24 | 1428 | 1437 | 1310 |
| 2022-23 | Championship | #17 | 1397 | 1479 | 1440 |
| 2021-22 | League One | #8 | 1593 | 1717 | 1584 |
| 2020-21 | Championship | #22 | 1421 | 1463 | 1370 |
| 2019-20 | League One | #4 | 1597 | 1658 | 1606 |
| 2018-19 | Championship | #23 | 1324 | 1425 | 1352 |
| 2017-18 | League One | #3 | 1602 | 1668 | 1594 |
| 2016-17 | Championship | #24 | 1475 | 1475 | 1289 |
| 2015-16 | Championship | #17 | 1415 | 1534 | 1470 |
| 2014-15 | Championship | #20 | 1488 | 1505 | 1431 |
| 2013-14 | League One | #2 | 1400 | 1695 | 1655 |
| 2012-13 | League Two | #1 | 1529 | 1610 | 1610 |
| 2011-12 | League Two | #10 | 1497 | 1573 | 1522 |
| 2010-11 | League Two | #15 | 1497 | 1602 | 1473 |
| 2009-10 | League Two | #11 | 1512 | 1589 | 1478 |
| 2008-09 | League Two | #10 | 1516 | 1598 | 1498 |
| 2007-08 | League Two | #9 | 1500 | 1636 | 1498 |
| 2006-07 | League One | #23 | 1472 | 1550 | 1368 |
| 2005-06 | League One | #13 | 1471 | 1553 | 1501 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | at Wycombe | L Rotherham 19.8% · draw 24.1% | L ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Reading | L Rotherham 32.7% · draw 31.0% | D ✗ |
| Apr 21, 2026 | vs Luton | L Rotherham 23.7% · draw 26.3% | L ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Leyton Orient | L Rotherham 23.1% · draw 26.7% | W ✗ |
| Apr 14, 2026 | at Wigan | L Rotherham 21.2% · draw 25.3% | L ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Barnsley | L Rotherham 33.4% · draw 30.4% | L ✓ |
| Apr 07, 2026 | at Port Vale | L Rotherham 33.9% · draw 31.4% | L ✓ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | vs Stevenage | L Rotherham 27.4% · draw 28.3% | D ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Lincoln | L Rotherham 9.3% · draw 15.7% | L ✓ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | at Peterboro | L Rotherham 28.6% · draw 30.0% | L ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The League One title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/rotherham">League One title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/rotherham">League One title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>