Crewe
League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #11 of 24 in League Two 67 pts · 19W–10D–17L · GD +6
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League Two simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Crewe?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Crewe's results were 3.9% harder to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.
| Market | Crewe | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 46.3% | 49.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 51.2% | 52.1% |
| Both teams to score | 48.8% | 50.9% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | League Two | #13 | 1533 | 1595 | 1493 |
| 2024-25 | League Two | #22 | 1452 | 1607 | 1381 |
| 2023-24 | League Two | #13 | 1508 | 1639 | 1464 |
| 2022-23 | League Two | #12 | 1617 | 1626 | 1511 |
| 2021-22 | League One | #24 | 1516 | 1516 | 1288 |
| 2020-21 | League One | #9 | 1338 | 1528 | 1528 |
| 2019-20 | League Two | #3 | 1486 | 1630 | 1622 |
| 2018-19 | League Two | #10 | 1539 | 1558 | 1519 |
| 2017-18 | League Two | #9 | 1464 | 1530 | 1530 |
| 2016-17 | League Two | #17 | 1614 | 1614 | 1455 |
| 2015-16 | League One | #24 | 1464 | 1464 | 1309 |
| 2014-15 | League One | #17 | 1471 | 1525 | 1460 |
| 2013-14 | League One | #13 | 1484 | 1485 | 1485 |
| 2012-13 | League One | #16 | 1419 | 1550 | 1487 |
| 2011-12 | League Two | #3 | 1488 | 1624 | 1620 |
| 2010-11 | League Two | #9 | 1402 | 1586 | 1505 |
| 2009-10 | League Two | #21 | 1470 | 1546 | 1406 |
| 2008-09 | League One | #18 | 1417 | 1542 | 1422 |
| 2007-08 | League One | #17 | 1492 | 1500 | 1423 |
| 2006-07 | League One | #15 | 1498 | 1537 | 1473 |
| 2005-06 | Championship | #17 | 1518 | 1520 | 1443 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | vs Cambridge | L Crewe 25.2% · draw 26.4% | D ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Chesterfield | L Crewe 18.8% · draw 25.3% | L ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Milton Keynes Dons | L Crewe 29.8% · draw 29.0% | L ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Grimsby | L Crewe 13.4% · draw 24.2% | L ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs Salford | L Crewe 33.4% · draw 30.8% | W ✗ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | at Accrington | W Crewe 38.8% · draw 30.6% | L ✗ |
| Mar 28, 2026 | vs Oldham | W Crewe 36.3% · draw 31.2% | W ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Shrewsbury | W Crewe 33.9% · draw 32.3% | W ✓ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | at Cheltenham | L Crewe 33.9% · draw 32.2% | D ✗ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Walsall | W Crewe 40.0% · draw 30.3% | L ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The League Two title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/crewe">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/crewe">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>