Crewe

League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1572 · #4 League Two 4W-6D-0L · 18 pts In line Updated Oct 10, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #4 of 24 71.2 expected pts · currently 18 pts after 10 matches

League title 5.1%
Promotion 40.1%
Automatic promotion 29.3%
Promotion playoffs 37.5%
Relegation 0.1%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full League Two simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Crewe?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Crewe's results were 3.9% harder to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.

MarketCreweLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 46.3% 49.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 51.2% 52.1%
Both teams to score 48.8% 50.9%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 League Two #4 1512 1572 1572
2025-26 League Two #13 1533 1595 1493
2024-25 League Two #22 1452 1607 1381
2023-24 League Two #13 1508 1639 1464
2022-23 League Two #12 1617 1626 1511
2021-22 League One #24 1516 1516 1288
2020-21 League One #9 1338 1528 1528
2019-20 League Two #3 1486 1630 1622
2018-19 League Two #10 1539 1558 1519
2017-18 League Two #9 1464 1530 1530
2016-17 League Two #17 1614 1614 1455
2015-16 League One #24 1464 1464 1309
2014-15 League One #17 1471 1525 1460
2013-14 League One #13 1484 1485 1485
2012-13 League One #16 1419 1550 1487
2011-12 League Two #3 1488 1624 1620
2010-11 League Two #9 1402 1586 1505
2009-10 League Two #21 1470 1546 1406
2008-09 League One #18 1417 1542 1422
2007-08 League One #17 1492 1500 1423
2006-07 League One #15 1498 1537 1473
2005-06 Championship #17 1518 1520 1443

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 10, 2026 at Swindon W Crewe 34.7% · draw 30.9% W ✓
Oct 03, 2026 vs Bristol Rvs L Crewe 31.7% · draw 30.2% W ✗
Sep 26, 2026 at Rotherham L Crewe 30.0% · draw 31.1% D ✗
Sep 19, 2026 vs Shrewsbury W Crewe 47.4% · draw 29.1% D ✗
Sep 12, 2026 at Colchester L Crewe 31.0% · draw 31.3% D ✗

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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