League Two 2026-2027: Rotherham vs Gillingham Prediction - 10 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Rotherham

Home Team
43%
VS

Gillingham

Away Team
27%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 23.9
Expected Spread: +0.4

Why the Model Leans Rotherham

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Rotherham
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.9 Gillingham
Attack +0.7 Rotherham

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 62% for Rotherham. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Gillingham defense +1.9 Over
Rotherham attack & chance creation +1.6 Under
Rotherham defense +1.2 Under
Gillingham attack & chance creation +0.7 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 54% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Salford 9 5 1 3 13 10 3 16
2 Barnet 7 4 3 0 17 10 7 15
3 Crewe 9 3 6 0 11 7 4 15
4 Cheltenham 9 4 3 2 16 14 2 15
5 Bristol Rvs 9 5 0 4 14 14 0 15
6 York 8 4 2 2 16 10 6 14
7 Walsall 8 3 5 0 11 5 6 14
8 Chesterfield 9 4 2 3 15 12 3 14
9 Grimsby 9 3 4 2 13 10 3 13
10 Gillingham 9 3 4 2 11 9 2 13
11 Rochdale 9 4 1 4 10 11 -1 13
12 Tranmere 9 2 5 2 12 12 0 11
13 Swindon 9 3 2 4 9 13 -4 11
14 Shrewsbury 9 3 2 4 9 14 -5 11
15 Newport County 9 2 4 3 12 12 0 10
16 Accrington 9 2 4 3 13 14 -1 10
17 Rotherham 9 2 4 3 11 12 -1 10
18 Fleetwood Town 9 2 4 3 9 10 -1 10
19 Colchester 8 2 4 2 10 12 -2 10
20 Exeter 9 2 3 4 5 6 -1 9
21 Oldham 8 2 1 5 9 13 -4 7
22 Northampton 7 1 3 3 3 6 -3 6
23 Port Vale 7 1 2 4 3 9 -6 5
24 Crawley Town 7 1 1 5 6 13 -7 4

Recent Trends

Rotherham L D W D L

  • Last Match: L vs Exeter (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Crewe (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Northampton (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Salford (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Bristol Rvs (Goals: 0 - 1)

Gillingham D L W W W

  • Last Match: D vs Newport County (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs York (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Bristol Rvs (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Tranmere (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Rochdale (Goals: 4 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Rotherham

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.75
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.50
Clean Sheets 1

Gillingham

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.25
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.25
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Rotherham a 43% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Gillingham at 27%. This is a tight call, with Rotherham only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 54% and sees both teams scoring in 49% of cases.

Match Analysis

Rotherham arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LDWDL from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 6 with 1 clean sheet. Gillingham arrive with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (DLWWW from most recent), scoring 9 and conceding 4 with 3 clean sheets. In the table Rotherham sit 17th with 10 points from 9 games and a goal difference of -1, while Gillingham are 10th with 13 points and a goal difference of +2. That puts Gillingham 3 points clear of their opponent. Rotherham average 1.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over their last five home games, while Gillingham average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Rotherham), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (1.9 points toward Gillingham), attack (0.7 points toward Rotherham). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Rotherham
Goals in last 5 matches
Gillingham
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 54% and Over 2.5 at 46%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Rotherham matches produced 2.2 goals on average over their last 5, Gillingham matches 2.6. Both teams to score comes in at 49%, no goal for at least one side at 51%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Gillingham defense pulls toward Over by 1.9 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Rotherham
Corners in last 5 matches
Gillingham
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.2 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 56%, which leaves 44% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Rotherham
Shots in last 5 matches
Gillingham
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 23.9 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 23. The chance of 23 shots or fewer is 48%, which leaves 52% for 24 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Rotherham wins by X goals. Negative = Gillingham wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Rotherham vs Gillingham with expected spread of +0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Rotherham vs Gillingham
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.4 goals in favour of Rotherham. The spread model gives 27% to a Rotherham win by two goals or more and 38% to any Gillingham win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Rotherham win (43%), Under 2.5 (54%), No Goal (51%). Expected totals: 9.2 corners and 23.9 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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