League Two 2026-2027: Salford vs Fleetwood Town Prediction - 3 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Salford

Home Team
52%
VS

Fleetwood Town

Away Team
21%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 26.6
Expected Spread: +0.6

Why the Model Leans Salford

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Salford
Attack +5.2 Salford
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.3 Salford
Results & dominance +1.3 Salford

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 72% for Salford. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Salford defense +1.2 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barnet 7 4 3 0 17 10 7 15
2 Cheltenham 8 4 3 1 16 12 4 15
3 Bristol Rvs 8 5 0 3 13 11 2 15
4 York 8 4 2 2 16 10 6 14
5 Walsall 8 3 5 0 11 5 6 14
6 Grimsby 8 3 4 1 12 8 4 13
7 Salford 8 4 1 3 12 10 2 13
8 Gillingham 8 3 3 2 11 9 2 12
9 Crewe 8 2 6 0 8 6 2 12
10 Tranmere 8 2 5 1 10 8 2 11
11 Chesterfield 8 3 2 3 11 10 1 11
12 Swindon 8 3 2 3 9 12 -3 11
13 Rotherham 8 2 4 2 11 11 0 10
14 Fleetwood Town 8 2 4 2 9 9 0 10
15 Colchester 8 2 4 2 10 12 -2 10
16 Rochdale 8 3 1 4 9 11 -2 10
17 Newport County 8 2 3 3 12 12 0 9
18 Shrewsbury 8 2 2 4 7 13 -6 8
19 Accrington 8 1 4 3 11 14 -3 7
20 Oldham 8 2 1 5 9 13 -4 7
21 Exeter 8 1 3 4 4 6 -2 6
22 Northampton 7 1 3 3 3 6 -3 6
23 Port Vale 7 1 2 4 3 9 -6 5
24 Crawley Town 7 1 1 5 6 13 -7 4

Recent Trends

Salford W W D W W

  • Last Match: W vs Oldham (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Swindon (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Rotherham (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Port Vale (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Newport County (Goals: 2 - 1)

Fleetwood Town L L D W D

  • Last Match: L vs Rochdale (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Barnet (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Newport County (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Shrewsbury (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Oldham (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Salford

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 0.50
Clean Sheets 2

Fleetwood Town

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.25
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.50
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Salford a 52% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 27% and Fleetwood Town at 21%. Salford are the favourite, but the gap to the other outcomes is modest. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 53% and sees both teams scoring in 52% of cases.

Match Analysis

Salford arrive with 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (WWDWW from most recent), scoring 11 and conceding 5 with 2 clean sheets. Fleetwood Town arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LLDWD from most recent), scoring 6 and conceding 7 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Salford sit 7th with 13 points from 8 games and a goal difference of +2, while Fleetwood Town are 14th with 10 points and a level goal difference. That puts Salford 3 points clear of their opponent. Salford average 1.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over their last five home games, while Fleetwood Town average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Salford), attack (5.2 points toward Salford), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (3.3 points toward Salford). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Salford
Goals in last 5 matches
Fleetwood Town
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 53% and Over 2.5 at 47%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Salford matches produced 3.2 goals on average over their last 5, Fleetwood Town matches 2.6. Both teams to score comes in at 52%, no goal for at least one side at 48%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Salford defense pulls toward Under by 1.2 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Salford
Corners in last 5 matches
Fleetwood Town
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.9 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 47%, which leaves 53% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Salford
Shots in last 5 matches
Fleetwood Town
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 26.6 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 26. The chance of 26 shots or fewer is 50%, which leaves 50% for 27 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Salford wins by X goals. Negative = Fleetwood Town wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Salford vs Fleetwood Town with expected spread of +0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Salford vs Fleetwood Town
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.6 goals in favour of Salford. The spread model gives 30% to a Salford win by two goals or more and 34% to any Fleetwood Town win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Salford win (52%), Under 2.5 (53%), Goal (52%). Expected totals: 9.9 corners and 26.6 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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