League Two 2026-2027: Walsall vs Port Vale Prediction - 19 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Walsall

Home Team
39%
VS

Port Vale

Away Team
30%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 26.2
Expected Spread: +0.1

Why the Model Leans Walsall

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Walsall
Defense +3.9 Port Vale
Attack +2.1 Walsall
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +2.0 Port Vale
Results & dominance +1.9 Port Vale

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 56% for Walsall. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Port Vale attack & chance creation +2.1 Under
Walsall attack & chance creation +1.2 Over
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +0.8 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barnet 6 3 3 0 14 9 5 12
2 Bristol Rvs 6 4 0 2 12 8 4 12
3 York 6 3 2 1 13 8 5 11
4 Cheltenham 6 3 2 1 13 10 3 11
5 Walsall 6 2 4 0 8 4 4 10
6 Grimsby 6 2 4 0 9 6 3 10
7 Fleetwood Town 6 2 4 0 7 4 3 10
8 Crewe 6 2 4 0 6 4 2 10
9 Swindon 6 3 1 2 8 10 -2 10
10 Tranmere 6 2 3 1 9 7 2 9
11 Gillingham 6 2 3 1 8 6 2 9
12 Chesterfield 6 2 2 2 8 8 0 8
13 Colchester 6 2 2 2 7 9 -2 8
14 Oldham 6 2 1 3 8 7 1 7
15 Salford 6 2 1 3 7 9 -2 7
16 Rotherham 6 1 3 2 9 10 -1 6
17 Northampton 6 1 3 2 3 5 -2 6
18 Shrewsbury 6 2 0 4 4 10 -6 6
19 Newport County 6 1 2 3 10 11 -1 5
20 Exeter 6 1 2 3 4 5 -1 5
21 Accrington 6 1 2 3 10 13 -3 5
22 Port Vale 6 1 2 3 3 7 -4 5
23 Crawley Town 6 1 1 4 6 11 -5 4
24 Rochdale 6 1 1 4 5 10 -5 4

Recent Trends

Walsall D D D W D

  • Last Match: D vs Rochdale (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Exeter (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Crewe (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Accrington (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Grimsby (Goals: 0 - 0)

Port Vale W L L D D

  • Last Match: W vs Exeter (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Salford (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Swindon (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Crewe (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Tranmere (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Walsall

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 0.67
Clean Sheets 3

Port Vale

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.33
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.00
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Walsall a 39% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Port Vale at 30%. This is a tight call, with Walsall only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Under 2.5 at 52% and sees both teams scoring in 50% of cases.

Match Analysis

Walsall arrive with 1 win, 4 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (DDDWD from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 4 with 3 clean sheets. Port Vale arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (WLLDD from most recent), scoring 3 and conceding 5 with 2 clean sheets. In the table Walsall sit 5th with 10 points from 6 games and a goal difference of +4, while Port Vale are 22nd with 5 points and a goal difference of -4. That puts Walsall 5 points clear of their opponent. Walsall average 1.0 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over their last five home games, while Port Vale average 0.3 scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Walsall), defense (3.9 points toward Port Vale), attack (2.1 points toward Walsall). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Walsall
Goals in last 5 matches
Port Vale
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 52% and Over 2.5 at 48%, so its call is Under 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Walsall matches produced 1.8 goals on average over their last 5, Port Vale matches 1.6. Both teams to score comes in at 50%, no goal for at least one side at 50%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Port Vale attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 2.1 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Walsall
Corners in last 5 matches
Port Vale
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.8 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 48%, which leaves 52% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Walsall
Shots in last 5 matches
Port Vale
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 26.2 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 26. The chance of 26 shots or fewer is 54%, which leaves 46% for 27 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Walsall wins by X goals. Negative = Port Vale wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Walsall vs Port Vale with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Walsall vs Port Vale
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.1 goals in favour of Walsall. The spread model gives 23% to a Walsall win by two goals or more and 43% to any Port Vale win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Walsall win (39%), Under 2.5 (52%), Goal (50%). Expected totals: 9.8 corners and 26.2 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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