League Two 2026-2027: Walsall vs Rochdale Prediction - 12 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Walsall

Home Team
47%
VS

Rochdale

Away Team
25%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 10.2
Expected Shots: 25.6
Expected Spread: +0.5

Why the Model Leans Walsall

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Walsall
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +7.7 Walsall
Defense +3.1 Rochdale
Results & dominance +2.5 Rochdale
Attack +2.4 Walsall

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 65% for Walsall. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Rochdale attack & chance creation +2.2 Under
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +2.2 Over
Walsall defense +1.5 Over
Rochdale defense +1.0 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 50% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bristol Rvs 5 4 0 1 12 6 6 12
2 Swindon 5 3 1 1 8 6 2 10
3 Barnet 5 2 3 0 12 8 4 9
4 Tranmere 5 2 3 0 9 5 4 9
5 Walsall 5 2 3 0 8 4 4 9
6 Fleetwood Town 5 2 3 0 6 3 3 9
7 Crewe 5 2 3 0 5 3 2 9
8 Cheltenham 5 2 2 1 10 9 1 8
9 York 5 2 2 1 9 8 1 8
10 Oldham 5 2 1 2 7 5 2 7
11 Grimsby 5 1 4 0 7 6 1 7
12 Colchester 5 2 1 2 6 8 -2 7
13 Gillingham 5 1 3 1 6 6 0 6
14 Northampton 5 1 3 1 3 3 0 6
15 Salford 5 2 0 3 4 6 -2 6
16 Exeter 5 1 2 2 4 4 0 5
17 Chesterfield 5 1 2 2 6 7 -1 5
18 Rotherham 5 1 2 2 6 7 -1 5
19 Accrington 5 1 2 2 9 11 -2 5
20 Newport County 5 1 1 3 9 10 -1 4
21 Crawley Town 5 1 1 3 5 8 -3 4
22 Rochdale 5 1 0 4 5 10 -5 3
23 Shrewsbury 5 1 0 4 2 10 -8 3
24 Port Vale 5 0 2 3 2 7 -5 2

Recent Trends

Walsall D D W D W

  • Last Match: D vs Exeter (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Crewe (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Accrington (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Grimsby (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Gillingham (Goals: 3 - 0)

Rochdale L W L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Gillingham (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Shrewsbury (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Colchester (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Crawley Town (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Newport County (Goals: 0 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Walsall

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.50
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.00
Clean Sheets 3

Rochdale

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.00
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Walsall a 47% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 28% and Rochdale at 25%. Walsall are the favourite, but the gap to the other outcomes is modest. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 50% and sees both teams scoring in 53% of cases.

Match Analysis

Walsall arrive with 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (DDWDW from most recent), scoring 8 and conceding 4 with 3 clean sheets. Rochdale arrive with 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats from their last 5 league games (LWLLL from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 10 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Walsall sit 5th with 9 points from 5 games and a goal difference of +4, while Rochdale are 22nd with 3 points and a goal difference of -5. That puts Walsall 6 points clear of their opponent. Walsall average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Rochdale average 0.0 scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Walsall), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (7.7 points toward Walsall), defense (3.1 points toward Rochdale). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Walsall
Goals in last 5 matches
Rochdale
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 50% and Over 2.5 at 50%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Walsall matches produced 2.4 goals on average over their last 5, Rochdale matches 3.0. Both teams to score comes in at 53%, no goal for at least one side at 47%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Rochdale attack & chance creation pulls toward Under by 2.2 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Walsall
Corners in last 5 matches
Rochdale
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.2 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 56%, which leaves 44% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Walsall
Shots in last 5 matches
Rochdale
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.6 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 51%, which leaves 49% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Walsall wins by X goals. Negative = Rochdale wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Walsall vs Rochdale with expected spread of +0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Walsall vs Rochdale
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.5 goals in favour of Walsall. The spread model gives 29% to a Walsall win by two goals or more and 36% to any Rochdale win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Walsall win (47%), Over 2.5 (50%), Goal (53%). Expected totals: 10.2 corners and 25.6 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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