League Two 2026-2027: York vs Gillingham Prediction - 26 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

York

Home Team
56%
VS

Gillingham

Away Team
17%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 25.1
Expected Spread: +0.7

Why the Model Leans York

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 York
Results & dominance +10.8 York
Attack +6.8 York
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +4.2 Gillingham
Defense +0.9 York

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 77% for York. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
York attack & chance creation +2.5 Over
Gillingham attack & chance creation +1.2 Over
Gillingham defense +1.2 Over
Form & results +0.6 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barnet 7 4 3 0 17 10 7 15
2 Walsall 7 3 4 0 10 4 6 13
3 Grimsby 7 3 4 0 11 6 5 13
4 Gillingham 7 3 3 1 11 6 5 12
5 Cheltenham 7 3 3 1 14 11 3 12
6 Bristol Rvs 7 4 0 3 12 11 1 12
7 York 7 3 2 2 13 10 3 11
8 Chesterfield 7 3 2 2 10 8 2 11
9 Crewe 7 2 5 0 7 5 2 11
10 Tranmere 7 2 4 1 9 7 2 10
11 Fleetwood Town 7 2 4 1 8 7 1 10
12 Salford 7 3 1 3 8 9 -1 10
13 Swindon 7 3 1 3 8 11 -3 10
14 Rotherham 7 2 3 2 10 10 0 9
15 Colchester 7 2 3 2 8 10 -2 9
16 Oldham 7 2 1 4 8 9 -1 7
17 Rochdale 7 2 1 4 7 10 -3 7
18 Shrewsbury 7 2 1 4 5 11 -6 7
19 Newport County 7 1 3 3 10 11 -1 6
20 Exeter 7 1 3 3 4 5 -1 6
21 Accrington 7 1 3 3 10 13 -3 6
22 Northampton 7 1 3 3 3 6 -3 6
23 Port Vale 7 1 2 4 3 9 -6 5
24 Crawley Town 7 1 1 5 6 13 -7 4

Recent Trends

York L W D L W

  • Last Match: L vs Chesterfield (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Swindon (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Crewe (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Cheltenham (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Exeter (Goals: 2 - 1)

Gillingham W W W D D

  • Last Match: W vs Bristol Rvs (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Tranmere (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Rochdale (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Chesterfield (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Northampton (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

York

Goals scored (avg, home) 3.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.00
Clean Sheets 1

Gillingham

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.67
Goals conceded (avg, away) 0.67
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives York a 56% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 26% and Gillingham at 17%. York are a clear favourite. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 53% and sees both teams scoring in 55% of cases.

Match Analysis

York arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LWDLW from most recent), scoring 9 and conceding 7 with 1 clean sheet. Gillingham arrive with 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (WWWDD from most recent), scoring 11 and conceding 3 with 2 clean sheets. In the table York sit 7th with 11 points from 7 games and a goal difference of +3, while Gillingham are 4th with 12 points and a goal difference of +5. That puts Gillingham 1 point clear of their opponent. York average 3.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Gillingham average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward York), results & dominance (10.8 points toward York), attack (6.8 points toward York). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

York
Goals in last 5 matches
Gillingham
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 47% and Over 2.5 at 53%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: York matches produced 3.2 goals on average over their last 5, Gillingham matches 2.8. Both teams to score comes in at 55%, no goal for at least one side at 45%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and York attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 2.5 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

York
Corners in last 5 matches
Gillingham
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.7 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 50%, which leaves 50% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

York
Shots in last 5 matches
Gillingham
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.1 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 54%, which leaves 46% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = York wins by X goals. Negative = Gillingham wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for York vs Gillingham with expected spread of +0.7
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for York vs Gillingham
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.7 goals in favour of York. The spread model gives 31% to a York win by two goals or more and 33% to any Gillingham win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: York win (56%), Over 2.5 (53%), Goal (55%). Expected totals: 9.7 corners and 25.1 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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