League Two 2026-2027: York vs Swindon Prediction - 12 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

York

Home Team
54%
VS

Swindon

Away Team
19%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 10.3
Expected Shots: 25.4
Expected Spread: +0.8

Why the Model Leans York

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 York
Results & dominance +9.8 York
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +6.2 Swindon
Attack +4.9 York
Defense +3.3 York

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 74% for York. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Swindon defense +2.3 Over
Swindon attack & chance creation +1.2 Under
York attack & chance creation +0.8 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bristol Rvs 5 4 0 1 12 6 6 12
2 Swindon 5 3 1 1 8 6 2 10
3 Barnet 5 2 3 0 12 8 4 9
4 Tranmere 5 2 3 0 9 5 4 9
5 Walsall 5 2 3 0 8 4 4 9
6 Fleetwood Town 5 2 3 0 6 3 3 9
7 Crewe 5 2 3 0 5 3 2 9
8 Cheltenham 5 2 2 1 10 9 1 8
9 York 5 2 2 1 9 8 1 8
10 Oldham 5 2 1 2 7 5 2 7
11 Grimsby 5 1 4 0 7 6 1 7
12 Colchester 5 2 1 2 6 8 -2 7
13 Gillingham 5 1 3 1 6 6 0 6
14 Northampton 5 1 3 1 3 3 0 6
15 Salford 5 2 0 3 4 6 -2 6
16 Exeter 5 1 2 2 4 4 0 5
17 Chesterfield 5 1 2 2 6 7 -1 5
18 Rotherham 5 1 2 2 6 7 -1 5
19 Accrington 5 1 2 2 9 11 -2 5
20 Newport County 5 1 1 3 9 10 -1 4
21 Crawley Town 5 1 1 3 5 8 -3 4
22 Rochdale 5 1 0 4 5 10 -5 3
23 Shrewsbury 5 1 0 4 2 10 -8 3
24 Port Vale 5 0 2 3 2 7 -5 2

Recent Trends

York D L W D W

  • Last Match: D vs Crewe (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Cheltenham (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Exeter (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Rotherham (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Bristol Rvs (Goals: 3 - 2)

Swindon W W L W D

  • Last Match: W vs Colchester (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Port Vale (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Oldham (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Cheltenham (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Northampton (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

York

Goals scored (avg, home) 2.50
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.50
Clean Sheets 0

Swindon

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.50
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives York a 54% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 27% and Swindon at 19%. York are the favourite, but the gap to the other outcomes is modest. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 51% and sees both teams scoring in 52% of cases.

Match Analysis

York arrive with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (DLWDW from most recent), scoring 9 and conceding 8 with 0 clean sheets. Swindon arrive with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WWLWD from most recent), scoring 8 and conceding 6 with 1 clean sheet. In the table York sit 9th with 8 points from 5 games and a goal difference of +1, while Swindon are 2nd with 10 points and a goal difference of +2. That puts Swindon 2 points clear of their opponent. York average 2.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over their last five home games, while Swindon average 0.0 scored and 1.5 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward York), results & dominance (9.8 points toward York), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (6.2 points toward Swindon). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

York
Goals in last 5 matches
Swindon
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 49% and Over 2.5 at 51%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: York matches produced 3.4 goals on average over their last 5, Swindon matches 2.8. Both teams to score comes in at 52%, no goal for at least one side at 48%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Swindon defense pulls toward Over by 2.3 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

York
Corners in last 5 matches
Swindon
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.3 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 55%, which leaves 45% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

York
Shots in last 5 matches
Swindon
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 25.4 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 25. The chance of 25 shots or fewer is 52%, which leaves 48% for 26 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = York wins by X goals. Negative = Swindon wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for York vs Swindon with expected spread of +0.8
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for York vs Swindon
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.8 goals in favour of York. The spread model gives 32% to a York win by two goals or more and 32% to any Swindon win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: York win (54%), Over 2.5 (51%), Goal (52%). Expected totals: 10.3 corners and 25.4 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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