Swindon
League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #9 of 24 in League Two 75 pts · 22W–9D–15L · GD +11
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full League Two simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Swindon?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Swindon's results were 2.3% easier to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.
| Market | Swindon | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 58.5% | 49.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 53.7% | 52.1% |
| Both teams to score | 48.8% | 50.9% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | League Two | #14 | 1482 | 1597 | 1489 |
| 2024-25 | League Two | #5 | 1437 | 1609 | 1559 |
| 2023-24 | League Two | #22 | 1466 | 1558 | 1421 |
| 2022-23 | League Two | #15 | 1535 | 1624 | 1458 |
| 2021-22 | League Two | #5 | 1603 | 1642 | 1588 |
| 2020-21 | League One | #22 | 1446 | 1450 | 1397 |
| 2019-20 | League Two | #4 | 1552 | 1660 | 1610 |
| 2018-19 | League Two | #11 | 1496 | 1564 | 1514 |
| 2017-18 | League Two | #12 | 1634 | 1641 | 1485 |
| 2016-17 | League One | #22 | 1499 | 1504 | 1402 |
| 2015-16 | League One | #12 | 1530 | 1539 | 1474 |
| 2014-15 | League One | #8 | 1524 | 1674 | 1510 |
| 2013-14 | League One | #9 | 1504 | 1558 | 1510 |
| 2012-13 | League One | #9 | 1404 | 1621 | 1520 |
| 2011-12 | League Two | #1 | 1588 | 1724 | 1645 |
| 2010-11 | League One | #24 | 1550 | 1586 | 1375 |
| 2009-10 | League One | #4 | 1467 | 1669 | 1605 |
| 2008-09 | League One | #14 | 1528 | 1528 | 1498 |
| 2007-08 | League One | #12 | 1447 | 1545 | 1511 |
| 2006-07 | League Two | #5 | 1529 | 1634 | 1591 |
| 2005-06 | League One | #22 | 1480 | 1518 | 1427 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | vs Chesterfield | L Swindon 28.6% · draw 29.1% | L ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Grimsby | L Swindon 19.6% · draw 26.4% | L ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Accrington | W Swindon 50.7% · draw 26.6% | D ✗ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | at Colchester | L Swindon 30.8% · draw 31.2% | L ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs Walsall | W Swindon 39.1% · draw 31.4% | W ✓ |
| Apr 02, 2026 | at Cambridge | L Swindon 17.0% · draw 25.4% | D ✗ |
| Mar 28, 2026 | vs Fleetwood Town | W Swindon 42.4% · draw 30.3% | D ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Tranmere | W Swindon 44.3% · draw 27.2% | W ✓ |
| Mar 17, 2026 | at Gillingham | W Swindon 36.7% · draw 30.2% | W ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Milton Keynes Dons | L Swindon 31.4% · draw 30.6% | L ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The League Two title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/swindon">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/swindon">League Two title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>