Swindon

League Two · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1439 · #21 League Two 3W-2D-5L · 11 pts In line Updated Oct 10, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #19 of 24 55.9 expected pts · currently 11 pts after 10 matches

League title 0.1%
Promotion 1.6%
Automatic promotion 0.6%
Promotion playoffs 5.4%
Relegation 12.7%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full League Two simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Swindon?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Swindon's results were 2.3% easier to call than the League Two average. How this is measured.

MarketSwindonLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 58.5% 49.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 53.7% 52.1%
Both teams to score 48.8% 50.9%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 League Two #21 1495 1532 1440
2025-26 League Two #14 1482 1597 1489
2024-25 League Two #5 1437 1609 1559
2023-24 League Two #22 1466 1558 1421
2022-23 League Two #15 1535 1624 1458
2021-22 League Two #5 1603 1642 1588
2020-21 League One #22 1446 1450 1397
2019-20 League Two #4 1552 1660 1610
2018-19 League Two #11 1496 1564 1514
2017-18 League Two #12 1634 1641 1485
2016-17 League One #22 1499 1504 1402
2015-16 League One #12 1530 1539 1474
2014-15 League One #8 1524 1674 1510
2013-14 League One #9 1504 1558 1510
2012-13 League One #9 1404 1621 1520
2011-12 League Two #1 1588 1724 1645
2010-11 League One #24 1550 1586 1375
2009-10 League One #4 1467 1669 1605
2008-09 League One #14 1528 1528 1498
2007-08 League One #12 1447 1545 1511
2006-07 League Two #5 1529 1634 1591
2005-06 League One #22 1480 1518 1427

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 10, 2026 vs Crewe L Swindon 34.4% · draw 30.9% L ✓
Oct 03, 2026 at Rochdale L Swindon 28.3% · draw 30.9% L ✓
Sep 26, 2026 vs Accrington W Swindon 36.5% · draw 31.1% D ✗
Sep 19, 2026 at Salford L Swindon 15.6% · draw 24.2% L ✓
Sep 12, 2026 at York L Swindon 18.8% · draw 26.9% L ✓

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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