Ligue 1 2025-2026: Le Havre vs Auxerre Prediction - 5 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Le Havre

Home Team
34%
VS

Auxerre

Away Team
41%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 23.8

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 26 19 3 4 58 22 36 60
2 Lens 27 19 2 6 54 24 30 59
3 Marseille 27 15 4 8 54 35 19 49
4 Lyon 27 14 5 8 41 29 12 47
5 Lille 27 14 5 8 42 34 8 47
6 Monaco 27 14 4 9 47 38 9 46
7 Rennes 27 12 8 7 43 37 6 44
8 Strasbourg 27 11 7 9 43 33 10 40
9 Toulouse 27 10 7 10 38 32 6 37
10 Lorient 27 9 10 8 37 41 -4 37
11 Brest 27 10 6 11 34 39 -5 36
12 Angers 27 9 5 13 24 37 -13 32
13 Paris FC 27 7 10 10 32 43 -11 31
14 Le Havre 27 6 9 12 22 35 -13 27
15 Nice 27 7 6 14 32 52 -20 27
16 Auxerre 27 5 7 15 22 36 -14 22
17 Nantes 26 4 5 17 24 45 -21 17
18 Metz 27 3 5 19 25 60 -35 14

Recent Trends

Le Havre L D L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Paris FC (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Brest (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Nantes (Goals: 0 - 2)

Auxerre W L D D L

  • Last Match: W vs Brest (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Marseille (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Strasbourg (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Lorient (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Le Havre

xG (avg) 0.67
xGA (avg) 1.87
Clean Sheets 1

Auxerre

xG (avg) 0.92
xGA (avg) 1.27
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Auxerre are marginally favoured here: the away win is given a 41.0% probability, ahead of Le Havre’s 34.0%, with the draw at 25.0%. The model leans towards a tight Auxerre victory in a low‑scoring contest, with an *under 2.5* goals prediction despite a 49.0% chance of the game going over. In the table, Le Havre sit 14th on 27 points, five clear of 16th‑placed Auxerre on 22, so this is a classic relegation six‑pointer.

Match Analysis

Le Havre come into this under pressure after two defeats in their last three matches. The 3-2 loss at Paris FC showed they can trade punches with stronger sides, but the 0-0 at home to Lyon and 2-0 defeat at Brest underline their lack of cutting edge: just two goals scored across those fixtures. Interestingly, they have allowed plenty of chances lately – their last five matches show an average of 1.874 expected goals conceded per game – yet they’ve actually let in only 0.6 goals on average, pointing to a defence that bends but, more often than not, doesn’t quite break. Auxerre’s recent form is slightly more encouraging. A convincing 3-0 home win over Brest was sandwiched between a narrow 1-0 defeat at Marseille and a 0-0 draw with Strasbourg, giving them four points from the last three games and two clean sheets in that run. Over their last five, they average 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded, with xG figures (0.916 for, 1.266 against) suggesting a more balanced profile than Le Havre. That blend of slightly sharper attack and steadier underlying numbers at the back is a key reason why the away side are tipped to edge this.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Le Havre
Goals in last 5 matches
Auxerre
Goals in last 5 matches
The model backs an *under 2.5* outcome, even with a fairly even 49.0% chance of over 2.5 goals. Two of Le Havre’s last three matches went under 2.5 (0-0 vs Lyon, 0-2 at Brest), with only the 3-2 at Paris FC breaking that pattern. Auxerre show a similar trend: two of their last three were under (0-1 at Marseille, 0-0 vs Strasbourg), with just the 3-0 Brest win going over. Given Le Havre’s 0.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game, and Auxerre’s modest 1.0 for and 1.0 against, combined with xG figures below 1.0 for both in attack, the under 2.5 prediction looks consistent with how these teams usually play.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Le Havre
Corners in last 5 matches
Auxerre
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a moderate total, with 9.75 expected total corners in the match. Le Havre’s last three outings produced corner counts of 5-9, 2-2 and 3-1, suggesting they neither rack up nor concede huge numbers consistently. Auxerre’s corner returns – 6-3 vs Brest, 2-9 at Marseille, 5-4 vs Strasbourg – show they can be pushed back by stronger opponents but otherwise hover around mid‑range figures. With both sides fairly cautious and rarely camped in the opposition box for long spells, the predicted corners total just under double figures feels in line with their styles.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Le Havre
Shots in last 5 matches
Auxerre
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 23.82 expected total shots, again hinting at a game with chances but not a barrage. Le Havre have just played matches with shot totals of 20-15 at Paris FC, 12-13 vs Lyon and 14-11 at Brest – all in the low‑ to mid‑20s combined. Auxerre’s recent games read 11-9, 8-16 and 10-13, similarly clustering in that bracket. With both sides’ xG numbers modest, a combined tally around the expected shots figure suggests a match where each team creates a handful of opportunities rather than sustained attacking onslaughts.

Final Prediction

Auxerre are given the edge because their recent form is slightly stronger, their attack is marginally more efficient, and their underlying defensive numbers are more stable than Le Havre’s. In what looks like a tight, nervous contest near the bottom of the table, the key factor to watch will be which side capitalises on limited chances in a game likely decided by a single goal.

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