Le Havre
Ligue 1 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #17 of 18 39.5 expected pts · pre-season forecast
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 1 simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #14 of 18 in Ligue 1 35 pts · 7W–14D–13L · GD -12
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 1 simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Le Havre?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 25 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Le Havre's results were 3.6% easier to call than the Ligue 1 average. How this is measured.
| Market | Le Havre | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 40.0% | 47.2% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 44.0% | 55.7% |
| Both teams to score | 48.0% | 48.6% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Ligue 1 | #14 | 1480 | 1502 | 1428 |
| 2024-25 | Ligue 1 | #13 | 1466 | 1520 | 1456 |
| 2023-24 | Ligue 1 | #17 | 1502 | 1516 | 1358 |
| 2022-23 | Ligue 2 | #2 | 1460 | 1706 | 1625 |
| 2021-22 | Ligue 2 | #16 | 1491 | 1589 | 1452 |
| 2020-21 | Ligue 2 | #11 | 1518 | 1562 | 1490 |
| 2019-20 | Ligue 2 | #6 | 1494 | 1607 | 1543 |
| 2018-19 | Ligue 2 | #9 | 1591 | 1619 | 1492 |
| 2017-18 | Ligue 2 | #3 | 1534 | 1615 | 1615 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 03, 2026 | at Lille | L Le Havre 14.4% · draw 15.9% | D ✗ |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vs Metz | W Le Havre 58.9% · draw 20.6% | D ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Angers | W Le Havre 37.9% · draw 26.0% | D ✗ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | at Nice | L Le Havre 25.1% · draw 22.7% | D ✗ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | vs Auxerre | L Le Havre 31.9% · draw 25.5% | D ✗ |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vs Lyon | L Le Havre 25.0% · draw 21.8% | D ✗ |
| Mar 08, 2026 | at Brest | L Le Havre 22.7% · draw 22.0% | L ✓ |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vs Paris Saint-Germain | L Le Havre 13.7% · draw 14.1% | L ✓ |
| Feb 15, 2026 | vs Toulouse | W Le Havre 42.1% · draw 26.2% | W ✓ |
| Feb 08, 2026 | vs Strasbourg | L Le Havre 33.6% · draw 26.1% | W ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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