Auxerre

Ligue 1 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1457 · #16 Ligue 1 2W-0D-4L · 6 pts On script Updated Oct 11, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #16 of 18 35.7 expected pts · currently 6 pts after 6 matches

League title 0.0%
Champions League places 0.1%
Europa League 0.6%
Relegation playoff 16.1%
Relegation 27.7%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Ligue 1 simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Auxerre?

On script 2025-26 · 24 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Auxerre's results were 13.3% easier to call than the Ligue 1 average. How this is measured.

MarketAuxerreLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 50.0% 48.5%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 50.0% 55.9%
Both teams to score 33.3% 48.5%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Ligue 1 #16 1478 1478 1457
2025-26 Ligue 1 #13 1518 1518 1440
2024-25 Ligue 1 #12 1518 1546 1475
2023-24 Ligue 2 #1 1656 1706 1669
2022-23 Ligue 1 #16 1478 1523 1420
2021-22 Ligue 2 #1 1592 1671 1671
2020-21 Ligue 2 #5 1451 1603 1591
2019-20 Ligue 2 #12 1418 1518 1485
2018-19 Ligue 2 #18 1446 1553 1417
2017-18 Ligue 2 #12 1518 1557 1457

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 11, 2026 at Rennes L Auxerre 17.2% · draw 21.1% L ✓

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