Auxerre
Ligue 1 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #14 of 18 39.8 expected pts · pre-season forecast
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 1 simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #15 of 18 in Ligue 1 34 pts · 8W–10D–16L · GD -10
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 1 simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Auxerre?
On script 2025-26 · 25 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Auxerre's results were 14.8% easier to call than the Ligue 1 average. How this is measured.
| Market | Auxerre | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 52.0% | 47.2% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 52.0% | 55.7% |
| Both teams to score | 44.0% | 48.6% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Ligue 1 | #13 | 1518 | 1518 | 1440 |
| 2024-25 | Ligue 1 | #12 | 1518 | 1546 | 1475 |
| 2023-24 | Ligue 2 | #1 | 1656 | 1706 | 1669 |
| 2022-23 | Ligue 1 | #16 | 1478 | 1523 | 1420 |
| 2021-22 | Ligue 2 | #1 | 1592 | 1671 | 1671 |
| 2020-21 | Ligue 2 | #5 | 1451 | 1603 | 1591 |
| 2019-20 | Ligue 2 | #12 | 1418 | 1518 | 1485 |
| 2018-19 | Ligue 2 | #18 | 1446 | 1553 | 1417 |
| 2017-18 | Ligue 2 | #12 | 1518 | 1557 | 1457 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 03, 2026 | vs Angers | W Auxerre 56.1% · draw 21.7% | W ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Lyon | L Auxerre 16.3% · draw 17.4% | L ✓ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | at Monaco | L Auxerre 18.5% · draw 19.1% | D ✗ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | at Le Havre | W Auxerre 42.5% · draw 25.5% | D ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Brest | L Auxerre 33.2% · draw 25.3% | W ✗ |
| Mar 13, 2026 | at Marseille | L Auxerre 16.6% · draw 17.6% | L ✓ |
| Mar 07, 2026 | vs Strasbourg | L Auxerre 28.8% · draw 23.9% | D ✗ |
| Mar 01, 2026 | at Lorient | L Auxerre 22.2% · draw 21.6% | D ✗ |
| Feb 22, 2026 | vs Rennes | W Auxerre 48.3% · draw 24.6% | L ✗ |
| Feb 15, 2026 | at Metz | W Auxerre 47.8% · draw 23.8% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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