Strasbourg
Ligue 1 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #7 of 18 48.9 expected pts · pre-season forecast
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 1 simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #8 of 18 in Ligue 1 53 pts · 15W–8D–11L · GD +11
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 1 simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Strasbourg?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 24 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Strasbourg's results were 2.5% harder to call than the Ligue 1 average. How this is measured.
| Market | Strasbourg | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 41.7% | 47.2% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 54.2% | 55.7% |
| Both teams to score | 58.3% | 48.6% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Ligue 1 | #9 | 1529 | 1562 | 1507 |
| 2024-25 | Ligue 1 | #3 | 1502 | 1670 | 1583 |
| 2023-24 | Ligue 1 | #13 | 1518 | 1527 | 1433 |
| 2022-23 | Ligue 1 | #14 | 1471 | 1504 | 1482 |
| 2021-22 | Ligue 1 | #6 | 1467 | 1618 | 1592 |
| 2020-21 | Ligue 1 | #13 | 1480 | 1532 | 1461 |
| 2019-20 | Ligue 1 | #11 | 1498 | 1538 | 1505 |
| 2018-19 | Ligue 1 | #13 | 1533 | 1579 | 1474 |
| 2017-18 | Ligue 1 | #16 | 1477 | 1543 | 1402 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 03, 2026 | vs Toulouse | W Strasbourg 62.7% · draw 19.0% | L ✗ |
| Apr 26, 2026 | at Lorient | L Strasbourg 34.4% · draw 24.5% | W ✗ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | vs Rennes | W Strasbourg 59.1% · draw 20.4% | L ✗ |
| Apr 04, 2026 | vs Nice | W Strasbourg 67.0% · draw 17.1% | W ✓ |
| Mar 07, 2026 | at Auxerre | W Strasbourg 47.2% · draw 23.9% | D ✗ |
| Feb 27, 2026 | vs Lens | L Strasbourg 35.9% · draw 25.0% | D ✗ |
| Feb 22, 2026 | vs Lyon | L Strasbourg 29.1% · draw 24.1% | W ✗ |
| Feb 14, 2026 | at Marseille | L Strasbourg 19.5% · draw 19.8% | D ✗ |
| Feb 08, 2026 | at Le Havre | W Strasbourg 40.2% · draw 26.1% | L ✗ |
| Feb 01, 2026 | vs Paris Saint-Germain | L Strasbourg 20.4% · draw 18.9% | L ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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