Brest
Ligue 1 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #11 of 18 43.7 expected pts · pre-season forecast
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 1 simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #12 of 18 in Ligue 1 39 pts · 10W–9D–15L · GD -12
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 1 simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Brest?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 24 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Brest's results were 5.3% easier to call than the Ligue 1 average. How this is measured.
| Market | Brest | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 50.0% | 47.2% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% | 55.7% |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | 48.6% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Ligue 1 | #12 | 1498 | 1553 | 1456 |
| 2024-25 | Ligue 1 | #9 | 1466 | 1570 | 1514 |
| 2023-24 | Ligue 1 | #4 | 1518 | 1638 | 1610 |
| 2022-23 | Ligue 1 | #10 | 1482 | 1552 | 1525 |
| 2021-22 | Ligue 1 | #13 | 1502 | 1573 | 1436 |
| 2020-21 | Ligue 1 | #18 | 1477 | 1518 | 1407 |
| 2019-20 | Ligue 1 | #16 | 1498 | 1536 | 1445 |
| 2018-19 | Ligue 2 | #3 | 1551 | 1679 | 1625 |
| 2017-18 | Ligue 2 | #4 | 1471 | 1610 | 1610 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | vs Lens | L Brest 19.0% · draw 18.0% | D ✗ |
| Apr 04, 2026 | vs Rennes | L Brest 29.8% · draw 24.2% | L ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Auxerre | W Brest 41.4% · draw 25.3% | L ✗ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at Monaco | L Brest 21.1% · draw 20.9% | L ✓ |
| Mar 08, 2026 | vs Le Havre | W Brest 55.3% · draw 22.0% | W ✓ |
| Mar 01, 2026 | at Metz | W Brest 49.6% · draw 23.1% | W ✓ |
| Feb 20, 2026 | vs Marseille | L Brest 29.1% · draw 24.1% | W ✗ |
| Feb 14, 2026 | at Lille | L Brest 19.8% · draw 20.0% | D ✗ |
| Feb 07, 2026 | vs Lorient | W Brest 45.4% · draw 25.7% | W ✓ |
| Feb 01, 2026 | at Nice | L Brest 31.4% · draw 23.9% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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