Marseille

Ligue 1 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1491 · #11 Ligue 1 In line Updated May 03, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #8 of 18 48.0 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 3.7%
Champions League 21.2%
Europa League 14.4%
Relegation playoff 3.7%
Relegation 4.7%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full Ligue 1 simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Marseille?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 25 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Marseille's results were 3.1% easier to call than the Ligue 1 average. How this is measured.

MarketMarseilleLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 56.0% 47.2%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 52.0% 55.7%
Both teams to score 52.0% 48.6%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 Ligue 1 #11 1482 1625 1491
2024-25 Ligue 1 #4 1534 1632 1580
2023-24 Ligue 1 #8 1518 1549 1517
2022-23 Ligue 1 #8 1522 1687 1557
2021-22 Ligue 1 #3 1529 1634 1612
2020-21 Ligue 1 #5 1527 1622 1526
2019-20 Ligue 1 #2 1467 1677 1632
2018-19 Ligue 1 #6 1523 1574 1553
2017-18 Ligue 1 #2 1522 1667 1658
2016-17 Ligue 1 #4 1498 1610 1610
2015-16 Ligue 1 #8 1471 1578 1513
2014-15 Ligue 1 #5 1502 1639 1581

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Apr 26, 2026 vs Nice W Marseille 80.6% · draw 10.8% D ✗
Apr 18, 2026 at Lorient W Marseille 51.3% · draw 22.5% L ✗
Apr 10, 2026 vs Metz W Marseille 81.8% · draw 10.2% W ✓
Apr 05, 2026 at Monaco L Marseille 35.5% · draw 24.0% L ✓
Mar 22, 2026 vs Lille W Marseille 59.3% · draw 20.4% L ✗
Mar 13, 2026 vs Auxerre W Marseille 65.8% · draw 17.6% W ✓
Mar 07, 2026 at Toulouse L Marseille 36.6% · draw 24.3% W ✗
Mar 01, 2026 vs Lyon W Marseille 50.5% · draw 22.4% W ✓
Feb 20, 2026 at Brest W Marseille 46.8% · draw 24.1% L ✗
Feb 14, 2026 vs Strasbourg W Marseille 60.8% · draw 19.8% D ✗

Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0

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