Paris FC
Ligue 1 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #9 of 18 46.6 expected pts · pre-season forecast
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 1 simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #11 of 18 in Ligue 1 44 pts · 11W–11D–12L · GD -3
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 1 simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Paris FC?
Sample still small 2025-26 · 12 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Paris FC's results were 22.4% harder to call than the Ligue 1 average. How this is measured.
| Market | Paris FC | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 33.3% | 47.2% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% | 55.7% |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | 48.6% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Ligue 1 | #7 | 1482 | 1533 | 1531 |
| 2024-25 | Ligue 2 | #1 | 1616 | 1672 | 1672 |
| 2023-24 | Ligue 2 | #2 | 1501 | 1612 | 1608 |
| 2022-23 | Ligue 2 | #7 | 1600 | 1609 | 1543 |
| 2021-22 | Ligue 2 | #4 | 1617 | 1674 | 1623 |
| 2020-21 | Ligue 2 | #3 | 1515 | 1615 | 1606 |
| 2019-20 | Ligue 2 | #13 | 1548 | 1548 | 1474 |
| 2018-19 | Ligue 2 | #4 | 1524 | 1621 | 1590 |
| 2017-18 | Ligue 2 | #7 | 1498 | 1610 | 1532 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 04, 2026 | at Paris Saint-Germain | L Paris FC 1.0% · draw 1.6% | L ✓ |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Toulouse | W Paris FC 45.3% · draw 24.8% | L ✗ |
| Dec 07, 2025 | at Le Havre | L Paris FC 31.4% · draw 26.0% | D ✗ |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Auxerre | W Paris FC 78.1% · draw 12.0% | D ✗ |
| Nov 23, 2025 | at Lille | L Paris FC 4.6% · draw 6.4% | L ✓ |
| Nov 07, 2025 | vs Rennes | W Paris FC 45.9% · draw 26.3% | L ✗ |
| Nov 01, 2025 | at Monaco | L Paris FC 3.7% · draw 5.2% | W ✗ |
| Oct 29, 2025 | vs Lyon | L Paris FC 27.6% · draw 19.8% | D ✗ |
| Oct 24, 2025 | vs Nantes | W Paris FC 88.8% · draw 6.4% | L ✗ |
| Oct 19, 2025 | at Lens | L Paris FC 15.2% · draw 16.6% | L ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Ligue 1 title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/paris-fc">Ligue 1 title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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