Paris FC

Ligue 1 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1540 · #6 Ligue 1 3W-2D-1L · 11 pts Updated Oct 11, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #6 of 18 51.5 expected pts · currently 11 pts after 6 matches

League title 2.3%
Champions League places 21.8%
Europa League 24.3%
Relegation playoff 0.4%
Relegation 0.2%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Ligue 1 simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Paris FC?

Sample still small 2026-27 · 1 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Paris FC's results were 69.7% harder to call than the Ligue 1 average. How this is measured.

MarketParis FCLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 0.0% 66.7%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 100.0% 66.7%
Both teams to score 100.0% 66.7%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Ligue 1 #6 1502 1565 1540
2025-26 Ligue 1 #7 1482 1533 1531
2024-25 Ligue 2 #1 1616 1672 1672
2023-24 Ligue 2 #2 1501 1612 1608
2022-23 Ligue 2 #7 1600 1609 1543
2021-22 Ligue 2 #4 1617 1674 1623
2020-21 Ligue 2 #3 1515 1615 1606
2019-20 Ligue 2 #13 1548 1548 1474
2018-19 Ligue 2 #4 1524 1621 1590
2017-18 Ligue 2 #7 1498 1610 1532

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 10, 2026 at Lorient W Paris FC 44.6% · draw 25.3% L ✗

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