Lyon
Ligue 1 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #5 of 18 52.6 expected pts · pre-season forecast
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 1 simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #4 of 18 in Ligue 1 60 pts · 18W–6D–10L · GD +13
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 1 simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Lyon?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 25 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Lyon's results were 7.5% easier to call than the Ligue 1 average. How this is measured.
| Market | Lyon | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 56.0% | 47.2% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 60.0% | 55.7% |
| Both teams to score | 52.0% | 48.6% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Ligue 1 | #3 | 1529 | 1616 | 1616 |
| 2024-25 | Ligue 1 | #7 | 1478 | 1637 | 1562 |
| 2023-24 | Ligue 1 | #3 | 1482 | 1645 | 1645 |
| 2022-23 | Ligue 1 | #6 | 1518 | 1613 | 1587 |
| 2021-22 | Ligue 1 | #7 | 1498 | 1581 | 1576 |
| 2020-21 | Ligue 1 | #4 | 1519 | 1674 | 1620 |
| 2019-20 | Ligue 1 | #5 | 1534 | 1557 | 1532 |
| 2018-19 | Ligue 1 | #2 | 1503 | 1637 | 1637 |
| 2017-18 | Ligue 1 | #4 | 1523 | 1697 | 1650 |
| 2016-17 | Ligue 1 | #5 | 1553 | 1611 | 1598 |
| 2015-16 | Ligue 1 | #3 | 1498 | 1660 | 1615 |
| 2014-15 | Ligue 1 | #3 | 1520 | 1672 | 1632 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 03, 2026 | vs Rennes | W Lyon 55.0% · draw 22.1% | W ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Auxerre | W Lyon 66.2% · draw 17.4% | W ✓ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | at Paris Saint-Germain | L Lyon 10.4% · draw 12.4% | W ✗ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vs Lorient | W Lyon 58.9% · draw 20.6% | W ✓ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | at Angers | W Lyon 56.8% · draw 20.5% | D ✗ |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vs Monaco | W Lyon 54.2% · draw 22.4% | L ✗ |
| Mar 15, 2026 | at Le Havre | W Lyon 53.1% · draw 21.8% | D ✗ |
| Mar 01, 2026 | at Marseille | L Lyon 27.1% · draw 22.4% | L ✓ |
| Feb 22, 2026 | at Strasbourg | W Lyon 46.7% · draw 24.1% | L ✗ |
| Feb 15, 2026 | vs Nice | W Lyon 68.7% · draw 16.3% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Ligue 1 title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/lyon">Ligue 1 title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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