Ligue 1 2025-2026: Le Havre vs Marseille Prediction - 10 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Le Havre

Home Team
23%
VS

Marseille

Away Team
57%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 25.1
Expected Spread: -0.7

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 31 22 4 5 70 27 43 70
2 Lens 31 20 4 7 61 33 28 64
3 Lyon 32 18 6 8 52 34 18 60
4 Lille 32 17 7 8 51 35 16 58
5 Rennes 32 16 8 8 56 46 10 56
6 Monaco 32 16 6 10 56 48 8 54
7 Marseille 32 16 5 11 59 44 15 53
8 Strasbourg 31 13 7 11 50 41 9 46
9 Lorient 32 10 12 10 44 49 -5 42
10 Toulouse 32 11 8 13 45 45 0 41
11 Paris FC 32 10 11 11 44 47 -3 41
12 Brest 31 10 8 13 41 51 -10 38
13 Angers 32 9 7 16 27 46 -19 34
14 Le Havre 32 6 14 12 30 43 -13 32
15 Nice 32 7 10 15 36 58 -22 31
16 Auxerre 32 6 10 16 30 43 -13 28
17 Nantes 32 5 8 19 29 51 -22 23
18 Metz 32 3 7 22 32 72 -40 16

Recent Trends

Le Havre D D D D D

  • Last Match: D vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Metz (Goals: 4 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Angers (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 1)

Marseille L D L W L

  • Last Match: L vs Nantes (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lorient (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Monaco (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Le Havre

xG (avg) 1.13
xGA (avg) 2.52
Clean Sheets 0

Marseille

xG (avg) 1.89
xGA (avg) 1.73
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Marseille are favoured to take all three points in Le Havre, with a 57.0% chance of an away win against just 23.0% for the hosts and 20.0% for the draw. The model points towards an open game with an over 2.5 prediction at 54.0% probability. In the table, Marseille are pushing for Europe in 7th place on 53 points, while Le Havre are 14th on 32 points and still looking over their shoulder at the relegation fight.

Match Analysis

Le Havre come into this on a run of three consecutive draws: 1-1 at Lille, a chaotic 4-4 at home to Metz and another 1-1 away at Angers. They have shown resilience and a knack for staying in games, but they have not kept a single clean sheet in their last five outings. Their recent averages — 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match — suggest balance on the scoreboard, but the underlying numbers are more worrying: they are allowing 2.52 expected goals per game while producing just 1.132 xG themselves, pointing to a defence that is frequently under siege. Marseille’s recent form has been poor in terms of results: a 0-3 loss at Nantes, 1-1 at home to Nice and a 0-2 defeat at Lorient. That’s just one point from nine and only one goal scored in that spell. Yet the advanced metrics tell a different story: they average 1.894 xG in their last five matches while conceding 1.732 xG, and despite scoring only 0.4 goals and conceding 1.8 on average, they are creating enough to expect better returns. Both sides have gone five games without a clean sheet, which sets up an intriguing contrast between Le Havre’s defensive frailty and Marseille’s misfiring but still productive attack.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Le Havre
Goals in last 5 matches
Marseille
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction edges it here with a 54.0% probability. Two of Le Havre’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (4-4 vs Metz, 1-1 vs Lille, 1-1 vs Angers), underlining how quickly their games can open up once the first goal goes in. Marseille, by contrast, have seen all of their last three finish under 2.5 (0-3, 1-1, 0-2), but their 1.894 xG for and 1.732 xG against per game suggest their matches should naturally lean towards higher scores as finishing regresses towards the chances created. Le Havre’s 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average, against a backdrop of 2.52 xG allowed, fit an attacking Marseille side that has been wasteful but still threatening. Taken together, these numbers support the expectation that this is more likely to creep over than stay under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Le Havre
Corners in last 5 matches
Marseille
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a moderately busy afternoon from the flags, with 9.19 total corners expected. Le Havre’s last three games have produced 19, 10 and 7 corners respectively, while Marseille’s have generated 15, 8 and 8. Marseille tend to rack up corners when they press and shoot from wide positions (7, 7 and 8 corners won across their last three), and Le Havre have repeatedly allowed their opponents to dominate in this area, as seen in the 5-14 count away to Lille. That combination supports an expected corners total around the projected 9–10 mark.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Le Havre
Shots in last 5 matches
Marseille
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 25.12 total attempts, fitting the recent patterns of both teams. Le Havre’s last three have seen them involved in matches with 24, 26 and 27 shots, while Marseille’s have featured 33, 29 and 27 attempts. Marseille, in particular, have been shot-happy — 16, 24 and 16 efforts of their own in those games — which aligns with their high xG of 1.894 despite the low goal return. With Le Havre conceding a lot of xG and often being pushed back, the expected shots figure looks realistic for an open contest.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Le Havre wins by X goals. Negative = Marseille wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Le Havre vs Marseille with expected spread of -0.7
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Le Havre vs Marseille
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is -0.71 in favour of Marseille, meaning the away side are expected to win by roughly three-quarters of a goal on average. Le Havre’s last three results give them a neutral goal difference (6 scored, 6 conceded), but that masks how often they’ve been out-chanced. Marseille, meanwhile, have a -4 goal difference over their last three (1 scored, 5 conceded), yet their underlying chance creation is significantly stronger than their finishing. Coupled with a 57.0% away-win probability and Le Havre’s poor defensive xG numbers, the expected spread leans logically towards Marseille.

Final Prediction

Marseille are given the edge because, despite their slump in results, they are consistently generating better chances than they are taking, while Le Havre’s defence is giving up a worrying volume of opportunities. If Marseille’s finishing rises even slightly towards their xG, their attacking volume and territorial pressure should tell. The key factor to watch will be how Le Havre’s back line copes with sustained pressure; if they crack early, this could quickly tilt in favour of the visitors.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel