Lorient
Ligue 1 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #10 of 18 45.8 expected pts · pre-season forecast
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 1 simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #10 of 18 in Ligue 1 45 pts · 11W–12D–11L · GD -3
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 1 simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Lorient?
Chaos club 2025-26 · 25 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Lorient's results were 30.0% harder to call than the Ligue 1 average. How this is measured.
| Market | Lorient | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 24.0% | 47.2% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | 55.7% |
| Both teams to score | 52.0% | 48.6% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Ligue 1 | #8 | 1482 | 1564 | 1514 |
| 2024-25 | Ligue 2 | #3 | 1564 | 1696 | 1668 |
| 2023-24 | Ligue 1 | #15 | 1502 | 1524 | 1374 |
| 2022-23 | Ligue 1 | #11 | 1529 | 1628 | 1494 |
| 2021-22 | Ligue 1 | #14 | 1520 | 1542 | 1395 |
| 2020-21 | Ligue 1 | #10 | 1520 | 1520 | 1481 |
| 2019-20 | Ligue 2 | #5 | 1570 | 1654 | 1548 |
| 2018-19 | Ligue 2 | #5 | 1505 | 1609 | 1556 |
| 2017-18 | Ligue 2 | #9 | 1498 | 1604 | 1505 |
| 2016-17 | Ligue 1 | #14 | 1482 | 1482 | 1427 |
| 2015-16 | Ligue 1 | #16 | 1502 | 1541 | 1444 |
| 2014-15 | Ligue 1 | #13 | 1529 | 1529 | 1458 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | at Paris Saint-Germain | L Lorient 5.7% · draw 7.7% | D ✗ |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vs Strasbourg | W Lorient 41.1% · draw 24.5% | L ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Marseille | L Lorient 26.2% · draw 22.5% | W ✗ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | at Lyon | L Lorient 20.6% · draw 20.6% | L ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Toulouse | L Lorient 23.2% · draw 22.3% | L ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Lens | L Lorient 26.0% · draw 22.4% | W ✗ |
| Mar 08, 2026 | at Lille | L Lorient 18.0% · draw 18.7% | D ✗ |
| Mar 01, 2026 | vs Auxerre | W Lorient 56.2% · draw 21.6% | D ✗ |
| Feb 22, 2026 | at Nice | W Lorient 41.0% · draw 25.4% | D ✗ |
| Feb 15, 2026 | vs Angers | W Lorient 54.5% · draw 22.3% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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