Nice
Ligue 1 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #16 of 18 39.7 expected pts · pre-season forecast
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 1 simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #16 of 18 in Ligue 1 32 pts · 7W–11D–16L · GD -23
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 1 simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Nice?
Chaos club 2025-26 · 25 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Nice's results were 17.2% harder to call than the Ligue 1 average. How this is measured.
| Market | Nice | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 32.0% | 47.2% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 48.0% | 55.7% |
| Both teams to score | 52.0% | 48.6% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Ligue 1 | #15 | 1471 | 1530 | 1426 |
| 2024-25 | Ligue 1 | #2 | 1482 | 1640 | 1590 |
| 2023-24 | Ligue 1 | #7 | 1498 | 1639 | 1518 |
| 2022-23 | Ligue 1 | #7 | 1502 | 1654 | 1580 |
| 2021-22 | Ligue 1 | #8 | 1498 | 1616 | 1556 |
| 2020-21 | Ligue 1 | #9 | 1518 | 1571 | 1506 |
| 2019-20 | Ligue 1 | #7 | 1518 | 1543 | 1518 |
| 2018-19 | Ligue 1 | #10 | 1471 | 1566 | 1512 |
| 2017-18 | Ligue 1 | #8 | 1482 | 1547 | 1524 |
| 2016-17 | Ligue 1 | #3 | 1518 | 1708 | 1629 |
| 2015-16 | Ligue 1 | #4 | 1471 | 1601 | 1596 |
| 2014-15 | Ligue 1 | #12 | 1518 | 1527 | 1490 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | vs Lens | L Nice 18.3% · draw 17.5% | D ✗ |
| Apr 26, 2026 | at Marseille | L Nice 8.7% · draw 10.8% | D ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Lille | L Nice 14.0% · draw 15.5% | D ✗ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vs Le Havre | W Nice 52.2% · draw 22.7% | D ✗ |
| Apr 04, 2026 | at Strasbourg | L Nice 15.9% · draw 17.1% | L ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Paris Saint-Germain | L Nice 17.9% · draw 17.2% | L ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at Angers | L Nice 33.8% · draw 24.2% | W ✗ |
| Mar 08, 2026 | vs Rennes | W Nice 59.4% · draw 20.3% | L ✗ |
| Feb 22, 2026 | vs Lorient | L Nice 33.6% · draw 25.4% | D ✗ |
| Feb 15, 2026 | at Lyon | L Nice 15.0% · draw 16.3% | L ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Ligue 1 title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/nice">Ligue 1 title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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