Metz
Ligue 1 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #18 of 18 in Ligue 1 17 pts · 3W–8D–23L · GD -44
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 1 simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Metz?
On script 2025-26 · 25 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Metz's results were 27.3% easier to call than the Ligue 1 average. How this is measured.
| Market | Metz | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 68.0% | 47.2% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 60.0% | 55.7% |
| Both teams to score | 32.0% | 48.6% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Ligue 1 | #18 | 1471 | 1479 | 1287 |
| 2024-25 | Ligue 2 | #2 | 1670 | 1706 | 1668 |
| 2023-24 | Ligue 1 | #16 | 1476 | 1526 | 1359 |
| 2022-23 | Ligue 2 | #1 | 1635 | 1723 | 1723 |
| 2021-22 | Ligue 1 | #18 | 1498 | 1498 | 1387 |
| 2020-21 | Ligue 1 | #17 | 1471 | 1583 | 1413 |
| 2019-20 | Ligue 1 | #13 | 1502 | 1521 | 1486 |
| 2018-19 | Ligue 2 | #2 | 1537 | 1669 | 1656 |
| 2017-18 | Ligue 1 | #20 | 1467 | 1467 | 1346 |
| 2016-17 | Ligue 1 | #13 | 1518 | 1545 | 1429 |
| 2014-15 | Ligue 1 | #20 | 1502 | 1541 | 1304 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | vs Monaco | L Metz 23.3% · draw 20.8% | L ✓ |
| Apr 26, 2026 | at Le Havre | L Metz 20.6% · draw 20.6% | D ✗ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | at Marseille | L Metz 8.1% · draw 10.2% | L ✓ |
| Mar 22, 2026 | at Rennes | L Metz 10.0% · draw 12.1% | D ✗ |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vs Toulouse | L Metz 19.3% · draw 18.2% | L ✓ |
| Mar 08, 2026 | at Lens | L Metz 8.6% · draw 10.8% | L ✓ |
| Mar 01, 2026 | vs Brest | L Metz 27.2% · draw 23.1% | L ✓ |
| Feb 21, 2026 | at Paris Saint-Germain | L Metz 3.1% · draw 4.8% | L ✓ |
| Feb 15, 2026 | vs Auxerre | L Metz 28.5% · draw 23.8% | L ✓ |
| Feb 06, 2026 | vs Lille | L Metz 16.2% · draw 16.0% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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