Metz

Ligue 2 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1629 · #2 Ligue 2 1W-3D-0L · 6 pts On script Updated Aug 31, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #6 of 18 50.0 expected pts · currently 6 pts after 4 matches

League title 3.4%
Promotion 10.1%
Automatic promotion 10.1%
Promotion barrage 29.4%
Relegation barrage 1.2%
Relegation 1.1%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Ligue 2 simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Metz?

On script 2025-26 · 25 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Metz's results were 27.3% easier to call than the Ligue 1 average. How this is measured.

MarketMetzLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 68.0% 47.2%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 60.0% 55.7%
Both teams to score 32.0% 48.6%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Ligue 2 #2 1641 1641 1629
2025-26 Ligue 1 #18 1471 1479 1287
2024-25 Ligue 2 #2 1670 1706 1668
2023-24 Ligue 1 #16 1476 1526 1359
2022-23 Ligue 2 #1 1635 1723 1723
2021-22 Ligue 1 #18 1498 1498 1387
2020-21 Ligue 1 #17 1471 1583 1413
2019-20 Ligue 1 #13 1502 1521 1486
2018-19 Ligue 2 #2 1537 1669 1656
2017-18 Ligue 1 #20 1467 1467 1346
2016-17 Ligue 1 #13 1518 1545 1429
2014-15 Ligue 1 #20 1502 1541 1304

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 02, 2026 vs Monaco L Metz 23.3% · draw 20.8% L ✓
Apr 26, 2026 at Le Havre L Metz 20.6% · draw 20.6% D ✗
Apr 10, 2026 at Marseille L Metz 8.1% · draw 10.2% L ✓
Mar 22, 2026 at Rennes L Metz 10.0% · draw 12.1% D ✗
Mar 15, 2026 vs Toulouse L Metz 19.3% · draw 18.2% L ✓
Mar 08, 2026 at Lens L Metz 8.6% · draw 10.8% L ✓
Mar 01, 2026 vs Brest L Metz 27.2% · draw 23.1% L ✓
Feb 21, 2026 at Paris Saint-Germain L Metz 3.1% · draw 4.8% L ✓
Feb 15, 2026 vs Auxerre L Metz 28.5% · draw 23.8% L ✓
Feb 06, 2026 vs Lille L Metz 16.2% · draw 16.0% D ✗

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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