Metz
Ligue 2 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #7 of 18 47.5 expected pts · currently 10 pts after 8 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Ligue 2 simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #18 of 18 in Ligue 1 17 pts · 3W-8D-23L · GD -44
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 1 simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Metz?
On script 2025-26 · 24 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Metz's results were 33.0% easier to call than the Ligue 1 average. How this is measured.
| Market | Metz | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 70.8% | 48.5% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% | 55.9% |
| Both teams to score | 41.7% | 48.5% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Ligue 2 | #4 | 1641 | 1650 | 1588 |
| 2025-26 | Ligue 1 | #18 | 1471 | 1479 | 1287 |
| 2024-25 | Ligue 2 | #2 | 1670 | 1706 | 1668 |
| 2023-24 | Ligue 1 | #16 | 1476 | 1526 | 1359 |
| 2022-23 | Ligue 2 | #1 | 1635 | 1723 | 1723 |
| 2021-22 | Ligue 1 | #18 | 1498 | 1498 | 1387 |
| 2020-21 | Ligue 1 | #17 | 1471 | 1583 | 1413 |
| 2019-20 | Ligue 1 | #13 | 1502 | 1521 | 1486 |
| 2018-19 | Ligue 2 | #2 | 1537 | 1669 | 1656 |
| 2017-18 | Ligue 1 | #20 | 1467 | 1467 | 1346 |
| 2016-17 | Ligue 1 | #13 | 1518 | 1545 | 1429 |
| 2014-15 | Ligue 1 | #20 | 1502 | 1541 | 1304 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
The Ligue 2 title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/metz">Ligue 2 title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/metz">Ligue 2 title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>