Ligue 1 2025-2026: Lille vs Lens Prediction - 4 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Lille

Home Team
36%
VS

Lens

Away Team
40%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 25.4

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 26 19 3 4 58 22 36 60
2 Lens 27 19 2 6 54 24 30 59
3 Marseille 27 15 4 8 54 35 19 49
4 Lyon 27 14 5 8 41 29 12 47
5 Lille 27 14 5 8 42 34 8 47
6 Monaco 27 14 4 9 47 38 9 46
7 Rennes 27 12 8 7 43 37 6 44
8 Strasbourg 27 11 7 9 43 33 10 40
9 Toulouse 27 10 7 10 38 32 6 37
10 Lorient 27 9 10 8 37 41 -4 37
11 Brest 27 10 6 11 34 39 -5 36
12 Angers 27 9 5 13 24 37 -13 32
13 Paris FC 27 7 10 10 32 43 -11 31
14 Le Havre 27 6 9 12 22 35 -13 27
15 Nice 27 7 6 14 32 52 -20 27
16 Auxerre 27 5 7 15 22 36 -14 22
17 Nantes 26 4 5 17 24 45 -21 17
18 Metz 27 3 5 19 25 60 -35 14

Recent Trends

Lille W W D W W

  • Last Match: W vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Rennes (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Lorient (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 1 - 0)

Lens W L W D L

  • Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lorient (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Monaco (Goals: 2 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lille

xG (avg) 1.18
xGA (avg) 1.40
Clean Sheets 2

Lens

xG (avg) 2.05
xGA (avg) 1.04
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Lens are narrowly favoured to take all three points, with a 40.0% probability of an away win compared to Lille’s 36.0% chance at home and a 25.0% chance of a draw. Sitting 2nd on 59 points, Lens are chasing Paris FC at the top, while Lille, 5th on 47 points, are locked in a tight battle for European places. The game is expected to be open: the model leans towards over 2.5 goals with a 60.0% probability.

Match Analysis

Lille arrive in decent form results-wise, unbeaten in three with back‑to‑back 2-1 away wins at Marseille and Rennes before a 1-1 home draw against Lorient. Those scorelines suggest resilience and the ability to edge tight contests, though the underlying numbers over the last five matches are more cautious: just 0.8 goals scored on average and 1.6 conceded, with 1.184 xG for and 1.402 xG against. Two clean sheets in that period show they can shut games down, but they’ve often been playing on the margins. Lens, by contrast, are coming in with far more attacking punch. They’ve scored 5-1 against Angers and 3-0 against Metz at home, either side of a slightly wasteful 2-1 defeat at Lorient where they dominated corners (10-1) and shots (20-6) but still lost. Over their last five games they’re averaging 2.2 goals scored and only 1.2 conceded, backed up by strong xG figures of 2.046 for and 1.036 against. That suggests a side creating plenty and generally controlling matches, which fits their 2nd-place standing.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lille
Goals in last 5 matches
Lens
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is backed at 60.0%, and recent scorelines support an open contest. Two of Lille’s last three matches have finished 2-1, both clearing the 2.5 line, with only the 1-1 draw against Lorient staying under. Lens have been consistently high-scoring: all three of their recent games (5-1, 1-2, 3-0) went over 2.5. With Lens averaging 2.2 goals scored and Lille conceding 1.6 per game over the last five, plus both sides’ xG pointing to regular chance creation, over 2.5 looks more likely than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lille
Corners in last 5 matches
Lens
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.68 total corners, which fits the recent data for two proactive sides. Lille’s last three produced 10, 7 and 6 corners, while Lens matches have generated 10, 11 and 10, with Lens especially aggressive from wide areas (7, 10 and 6 corners won). Given their attacking styles and Lens’ habit of pinning teams back, the predicted corners total just under double figures looks well aligned with how both teams play.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lille
Shots in last 5 matches
Lens
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 25.36 suggests a match with frequent efforts on goal, though not a complete shoot‑out. Lille’s last three have seen combined shots of 25, 20 and 21, whereas Lens games have been more voluminous at 42, 26 and 29, driven by their high attacking output. That aligns with Lens’ xG of just over 2.0 per game and underpins a strong shots prediction: Lens should again generate a healthy volume, with Lille contributing enough to push the total into the mid‑20s.

Final Prediction

Lens have the edge thanks to their superior attacking numbers and current 2nd-place momentum, even if the probabilities show this is far from a foregone conclusion. Lille’s recent knack for tight wins means they can’t be written off, especially at home. The key factor to watch will be whether Lille’s defence can withstand Lens’ sustained pressure and high shot volume over 90 minutes.

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