Lens
Ligue 1 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #4 of 18 53.4 expected pts · pre-season forecast
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 1 simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #2 of 18 in Ligue 1 70 pts · 22W–4D–8L · GD +31
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 1 simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Lens?
On script 2025-26 · 25 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Lens's results were 24.4% easier to call than the Ligue 1 average. How this is measured.
| Market | Lens | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 60.0% | 47.2% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 64.0% | 55.7% |
| Both teams to score | 60.0% | 48.6% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Ligue 1 | #6 | 1471 | 1677 | 1596 |
| 2024-25 | Ligue 1 | #8 | 1529 | 1566 | 1532 |
| 2023-24 | Ligue 1 | #10 | 1482 | 1607 | 1505 |
| 2022-23 | Ligue 1 | #1 | 1518 | 1725 | 1725 |
| 2021-22 | Ligue 1 | #4 | 1502 | 1605 | 1605 |
| 2020-21 | Ligue 1 | #8 | 1482 | 1586 | 1516 |
| 2019-20 | Ligue 2 | #2 | 1570 | 1651 | 1597 |
| 2018-19 | Ligue 2 | #6 | 1502 | 1598 | 1556 |
| 2017-18 | Ligue 2 | #11 | 1482 | 1543 | 1465 |
| 2014-15 | Ligue 1 | #19 | 1482 | 1504 | 1324 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | at Nice | W Lens 64.1% · draw 17.5% | D ✗ |
| Apr 24, 2026 | at Brest | W Lens 62.9% · draw 18.0% | D ✗ |
| Apr 17, 2026 | vs Toulouse | W Lens 67.7% · draw 16.8% | W ✓ |
| Apr 04, 2026 | at Lille | W Lens 42.6% · draw 24.1% | L ✗ |
| Mar 20, 2026 | vs Angers | W Lens 77.0% · draw 12.5% | W ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at Lorient | W Lens 51.5% · draw 22.4% | L ✗ |
| Mar 08, 2026 | vs Metz | W Lens 80.6% · draw 10.8% | W ✓ |
| Feb 27, 2026 | at Strasbourg | W Lens 39.1% · draw 25.0% | D ✗ |
| Feb 21, 2026 | vs Monaco | W Lens 52.6% · draw 22.4% | L ✗ |
| Feb 07, 2026 | vs Rennes | W Lens 68.0% · draw 16.6% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Ligue 1 title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/lens">Ligue 1 title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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