Ligue 1 2025-2026: Lille vs Nice Prediction - 18 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Lille

Home Team
70%
VS

Nice

Away Team
14%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 25.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 27 20 3 4 61 23 38 63
2 Lens 28 19 2 7 54 27 27 59
3 Lille 29 16 5 8 49 34 15 53
4 Marseille 29 16 4 9 58 38 20 52
5 Lyon 29 15 6 8 43 29 14 51
6 Rennes 29 14 8 7 49 41 8 50
7 Monaco 29 15 4 10 50 43 7 49
8 Strasbourg 28 12 7 9 46 34 12 43
9 Lorient 29 9 11 9 38 44 -6 38
10 Toulouse 29 10 7 12 39 39 0 37
11 Brest 28 10 6 12 37 43 -6 36
12 Paris FC 29 8 11 10 37 45 -8 35
13 Angers 29 9 6 14 25 39 -14 33
14 Le Havre 29 6 11 12 24 37 -13 29
15 Nice 29 7 7 15 34 56 -22 28
16 Auxerre 29 5 9 15 23 37 -14 24
17 Nantes 28 4 7 17 24 45 -21 19
18 Metz 29 3 6 20 26 63 -37 15

Recent Trends

Lille W W W W D

  • Last Match: W vs Toulouse (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Lens (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Rennes (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Lorient (Goals: 1 - 1)

Nice D L L W L

  • Last Match: D vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lille

xG (avg) 1.74
xGA (avg) 1.18
Clean Sheets 2

Nice

xG (avg) 1.22
xGA (avg) 1.78
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Lille are clear favourites at home with a 70.0% chance of victory, compared to just 14.0% for Nice and a 16.0% probability of a draw. The model points to a Lille win in a relatively tight game, with an under 2.5 goals prediction despite Lille’s recent scoring form. In the table, Lille sit 3rd on 53 points, pushing hard for the Champions League spots, while Nice are down in 15th with 28 points and still glancing nervously over their shoulders at the relegation battle.

Match Analysis

Lille come into this one in outstanding form: three straight wins, including a 3-0 home demolition of Lens and convincing away victories at Toulouse (4-0) and Marseille (2-1). They have looked ruthless in both penalty areas, scoring nine and conceding just one across those fixtures. Underneath the scorelines, the recent five‑game averages back up that dominance: 1.4 goals scored with 1.736 expected goals, and 1.2 conceded from only 1.184 expected, plus two clean sheets. This is a side largely controlling games and converting territory into results at exactly the right time in the season. Nice, by contrast, are stumbling. A 1-1 draw at home to Le Havre followed back‑to‑back defeats to Strasbourg (1-3) and Paris SG (0-4), with eight goals conceded in those three matches. Their five‑game averages tell a similar story: 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, but with an xG against of 1.778, suggesting they are allowing too many good chances. One clean sheet in that span underlines the defensive fragility, a worrying sign before visiting one of the league’s form sides chasing the top three.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lille
Goals in last 5 matches
Nice
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an under 2.5 prediction with a 49.0% probability of over 2.5 goals, so the edge lies narrowly on the “under” side. Interestingly, all of Lille’s last three games have gone over 2.5 (4-0, 3-0, 2-1), while two of Nice’s last three also cleared the line (1-3, 0-4, with only the 1-1 staying under). However, Lille’s average of 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, coupled with Nice’s similar 1.4 for and against but a lower attacking xG of 1.224, points to a game where Lille could control the tempo and keep the scoreline relatively contained despite their recent big wins.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lille
Corners in last 5 matches
Nice
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match stand at 9.41, suggesting a moderately busy game from wide areas. Lille’s last three outings produced 6, 6 and 10 total corners respectively, while Nice’s games have seen 7, 14 and 7, with Nice often racking up high counts when chasing matches (10 corners away at Strasbourg, for example). That supports a corners prediction around the ten-mark, as Lille’s structured, front‑foot game and Nice’s need to respond from a lower‑table position should generate enough attacking waves to hit the projected corners figure.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lille
Shots in last 5 matches
Nice
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.96, pointing towards a reasonably open contest without turning into a shot-fest. Lille’s last three matches saw combined shot counts of 24 (Toulouse), 18 (Lens) and 25 (Marseille), while Nice’s produced 26 (Le Havre), 24 (Strasbourg) and 23 (Paris SG). That pattern fits well with a shots prediction around 25, especially given Lille’s healthy attacking xG of 1.736 and Nice’s tendency to allow chances (1.778 xG conceded) even when not completely overrun.

Final Prediction

Lille’s superior league position, recent three‑game winning run and stronger underlying numbers give them a clear edge at home against an out‑of‑sorts Nice side. The key factor to watch will be how quickly Lille impose themselves territorially; if they pin Nice back early and translate their xG edge into chances, the visitors may struggle to escape with anything from this trip.

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