Toulouse

Ligue 1 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1497 · #10 Ligue 1 In line Updated May 03, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #12 of 18 42.6 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 1.0%
Champions League 8.2%
Europa League 8.3%
Relegation playoff 7.8%
Relegation 13.7%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full Ligue 1 simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Toulouse?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 26 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Toulouse's results were 6.7% harder to call than the Ligue 1 average. How this is measured.

MarketToulouseLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 42.3% 47.2%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 53.8% 55.7%
Both teams to score 38.5% 48.6%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 Ligue 1 #10 1529 1549 1497
2024-25 Ligue 1 #11 1498 1551 1477
2023-24 Ligue 1 #9 1529 1547 1515
2022-23 Ligue 1 #12 1498 1536 1491
2021-22 Ligue 2 #2 1568 1718 1657
2020-21 Ligue 2 #4 1471 1674 1592
2019-20 Ligue 1 #20 1502 1518 1250
2018-19 Ligue 1 #18 1477 1539 1386
2017-18 Ligue 1 #17 1482 1514 1402
2016-17 Ligue 1 #15 1502 1571 1417
2015-16 Ligue 1 #10 1518 1518 1494
2014-15 Ligue 1 #16 1482 1540 1425

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 03, 2026 at Strasbourg L Toulouse 18.3% · draw 19.0% W ✗
Apr 25, 2026 vs Monaco L Toulouse 31.0% · draw 24.7% D ✗
Apr 17, 2026 at Lens L Toulouse 15.5% · draw 16.8% L ✓
Apr 12, 2026 vs Lille L Toulouse 27.7% · draw 23.4% L ✓
Apr 03, 2026 at Paris Saint-Germain L Toulouse 9.7% · draw 11.8% L ✓
Mar 21, 2026 vs Lorient W Toulouse 54.5% · draw 22.3% W ✓
Mar 15, 2026 at Metz W Toulouse 62.4% · draw 18.2% W ✓
Mar 07, 2026 vs Marseille W Toulouse 39.2% · draw 24.3% L ✗
Feb 28, 2026 at Rennes W Toulouse 40.3% · draw 24.5% L ✗
Feb 15, 2026 at Le Havre L Toulouse 31.7% · draw 26.2% L ✓

Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0

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