Toulouse
Ligue 1 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #12 of 18 41.0 expected pts · currently 6 pts after 6 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Ligue 1 simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #9 of 18 in Ligue 1 44 pts · 12W-8D-13L · GD +1
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 1 simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Toulouse?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 25 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Toulouse's results were 4.7% harder to call than the Ligue 1 average. How this is measured.
| Market | Toulouse | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 48.0% | 48.5% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | 55.9% |
| Both teams to score | 44.0% | 48.5% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Ligue 1 | #13 | 1467 | 1476 | 1476 |
| 2025-26 | Ligue 1 | #10 | 1529 | 1549 | 1497 |
| 2024-25 | Ligue 1 | #11 | 1498 | 1551 | 1477 |
| 2023-24 | Ligue 1 | #9 | 1529 | 1547 | 1515 |
| 2022-23 | Ligue 1 | #12 | 1498 | 1536 | 1491 |
| 2021-22 | Ligue 2 | #2 | 1568 | 1718 | 1657 |
| 2020-21 | Ligue 2 | #4 | 1471 | 1674 | 1592 |
| 2019-20 | Ligue 1 | #20 | 1502 | 1518 | 1250 |
| 2018-19 | Ligue 1 | #18 | 1477 | 1539 | 1386 |
| 2017-18 | Ligue 1 | #17 | 1482 | 1514 | 1402 |
| 2016-17 | Ligue 1 | #15 | 1502 | 1571 | 1417 |
| 2015-16 | Ligue 1 | #10 | 1518 | 1518 | 1494 |
| 2014-15 | Ligue 1 | #16 | 1482 | 1540 | 1425 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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