Paris Saint-Germain

Ligue 1 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1635 · #2 Ligue 1 On script Updated May 03, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #2 of 18 56.5 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 18.2%
Champions League 55.8%
Europa League 15.8%
Relegation playoff 0.6%
Relegation 0.7%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full Ligue 1 simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Paris Saint-Germain?

On script 2025-26 · 25 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Paris Saint-Germain's results were 20.3% easier to call than the Ligue 1 average. How this is measured.

MarketParis Saint-GermainLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 68.0% 47.2%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 72.0% 55.7%
Both teams to score 40.0% 48.6%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 Ligue 1 #2 1546 1690 1635
2024-25 Ligue 1 #1 1534 1796 1721
2023-24 Ligue 1 #1 1498 1745 1705
2022-23 Ligue 1 #2 1534 1719 1616
2021-22 Ligue 1 #2 1529 1708 1668
2020-21 Ligue 1 #2 1481 1682 1682
2019-20 Ligue 1 #1 1522 1752 1751
2018-19 Ligue 1 #3 1522 1771 1636
2017-18 Ligue 1 #1 1520 1798 1715
2016-17 Ligue 1 #2 1529 1745 1724
2015-16 Ligue 1 #1 1529 1791 1733
2014-15 Ligue 1 #1 1502 1729 1729

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 02, 2026 vs Lorient W Paris Saint-Germain 86.6% · draw 7.7% D ✗
Apr 25, 2026 at Angers W Paris Saint-Germain 70.9% · draw 14.7% W ✓
Apr 19, 2026 vs Lyon W Paris Saint-Germain 77.3% · draw 12.4% L ✗
Apr 03, 2026 vs Toulouse W Paris Saint-Germain 78.5% · draw 11.8% W ✓
Mar 21, 2026 at Nice W Paris Saint-Germain 64.8% · draw 17.2% W ✓
Mar 06, 2026 vs Monaco W Paris Saint-Germain 78.7% · draw 11.7% L ✗
Feb 28, 2026 at Le Havre W Paris Saint-Germain 72.1% · draw 14.1% W ✓
Feb 21, 2026 vs Metz W Paris Saint-Germain 92.1% · draw 4.8% W ✓
Feb 13, 2026 at Rennes W Paris Saint-Germain 62.7% · draw 18.1% L ✗
Feb 08, 2026 vs Marseille W Paris Saint-Germain 61.8% · draw 19.0% W ✓

Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0

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Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/paris-saint-germain">Ligue 1 title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)

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