Paris Saint-Germain
Ligue 1 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Champions League 2026-27
#3 in the title oddsTop 24 counts every league-phase finish inside the knockout places, so the eight clubs that skip the play-off round are in it too. Top 8 is the separate direct route to the last 16. Points and finish are league-phase numbers, conditional on playing it.
10,000 simulated seasons · updated Sep 04, 2026.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #4 of 18 54.9 expected pts · currently 2 pts after 2 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Ligue 1 simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
🏆 Final: #1 of 18 in Ligue 1 76 pts · 24W-4D-6L · GD +45
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 1 simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Paris Saint-Germain?
On script 2025-26 · 25 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Paris Saint-Germain's results were 20.3% easier to call than the Ligue 1 average. How this is measured.
| Market | Paris Saint-Germain | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 68.0% | 47.2% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 72.0% | 55.7% |
| Both teams to score | 40.0% | 48.6% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Ligue 1 | #7 | 1506 | 1506 | 1506 |
| 2025-26 | Ligue 1 | #2 | 1546 | 1690 | 1635 |
| 2024-25 | Ligue 1 | #1 | 1534 | 1796 | 1721 |
| 2023-24 | Ligue 1 | #1 | 1498 | 1745 | 1705 |
| 2022-23 | Ligue 1 | #2 | 1534 | 1719 | 1616 |
| 2021-22 | Ligue 1 | #2 | 1529 | 1708 | 1668 |
| 2020-21 | Ligue 1 | #2 | 1481 | 1682 | 1682 |
| 2019-20 | Ligue 1 | #1 | 1522 | 1752 | 1751 |
| 2018-19 | Ligue 1 | #3 | 1522 | 1771 | 1636 |
| 2017-18 | Ligue 1 | #1 | 1520 | 1798 | 1715 |
| 2016-17 | Ligue 1 | #2 | 1529 | 1745 | 1724 |
| 2015-16 | Ligue 1 | #1 | 1529 | 1791 | 1733 |
| 2014-15 | Ligue 1 | #1 | 1502 | 1729 | 1729 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | vs Lorient | W Paris Saint-Germain 86.6% · draw 7.7% | D ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Angers | W Paris Saint-Germain 70.9% · draw 14.7% | W ✓ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | vs Lyon | W Paris Saint-Germain 77.3% · draw 12.4% | L ✗ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | vs Toulouse | W Paris Saint-Germain 78.5% · draw 11.8% | W ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Nice | W Paris Saint-Germain 64.8% · draw 17.2% | W ✓ |
| Mar 06, 2026 | vs Monaco | W Paris Saint-Germain 78.7% · draw 11.7% | L ✗ |
| Feb 28, 2026 | at Le Havre | W Paris Saint-Germain 72.1% · draw 14.1% | W ✓ |
| Feb 21, 2026 | vs Metz | W Paris Saint-Germain 92.1% · draw 4.8% | W ✓ |
| Feb 13, 2026 | at Rennes | W Paris Saint-Germain 62.7% · draw 18.1% | L ✗ |
| Feb 08, 2026 | vs Marseille | W Paris Saint-Germain 61.8% · draw 19.0% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
The Ligue 1 title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
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