Paris Saint-Germain
Ligue 1 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Champions League 2026-27
#2 in the title oddsTop 24 counts every league-phase finish inside the knockout places, so the eight clubs that skip the play-off round are in it too. Top 8 is the separate direct route to the last 16. Points and finish are league-phase numbers, conditional on playing it.
10,000 simulated seasons · updated Oct 20, 2026.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #2 of 18 60.3 expected pts · currently 11 pts after 6 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Ligue 1 simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
🏆 Final: #1 of 18 in Ligue 1 76 pts · 24W-4D-6L · GD +45
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 1 simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Paris Saint-Germain?
On script 2025-26 · 24 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Paris Saint-Germain's results were 15.7% easier to call than the Ligue 1 average. How this is measured.
| Market | Paris Saint-Germain | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 66.7% | 48.5% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 70.8% | 55.9% |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | 48.5% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Ligue 1 | #2 | 1506 | 1555 | 1555 |
| 2025-26 | Ligue 1 | #2 | 1546 | 1690 | 1635 |
| 2024-25 | Ligue 1 | #1 | 1534 | 1796 | 1721 |
| 2023-24 | Ligue 1 | #1 | 1498 | 1745 | 1705 |
| 2022-23 | Ligue 1 | #2 | 1534 | 1719 | 1616 |
| 2021-22 | Ligue 1 | #2 | 1529 | 1708 | 1668 |
| 2020-21 | Ligue 1 | #2 | 1481 | 1682 | 1682 |
| 2019-20 | Ligue 1 | #1 | 1522 | 1752 | 1751 |
| 2018-19 | Ligue 1 | #3 | 1522 | 1771 | 1636 |
| 2017-18 | Ligue 1 | #1 | 1520 | 1798 | 1715 |
| 2016-17 | Ligue 1 | #2 | 1529 | 1745 | 1724 |
| 2015-16 | Ligue 1 | #1 | 1529 | 1791 | 1733 |
| 2014-15 | Ligue 1 | #1 | 1502 | 1729 | 1729 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
The Ligue 1 title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/paris-saint-germain">Ligue 1 title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
<iframe src="https://www.predixsport.com/embed/title-odds/ligue_1"
width="360" height="430" style="border:0;border-radius:10px" loading="lazy"
title="Ligue 1 title odds & club ELO ratings · Predixsport"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/paris-saint-germain">Ligue 1 title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>