Ligue 1 2025-2026: Marseille vs Metz Prediction - 10 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Marseille

Home Team
82%
VS

Metz

Away Team
8%
Draw: 10%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 27.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 27 20 3 4 61 23 38 63
2 Lens 28 19 2 7 54 27 27 59
3 Lille 28 15 5 8 45 34 11 50
4 Marseille 28 15 4 9 55 37 18 49
5 Monaco 28 15 4 9 49 39 10 49
6 Lyon 28 14 6 8 41 29 12 48
7 Rennes 28 13 8 7 47 40 7 47
8 Strasbourg 28 12 7 9 46 34 12 43
9 Lorient 28 9 11 8 38 42 -4 38
10 Toulouse 28 10 7 11 39 35 4 37
11 Brest 28 10 6 12 37 43 -6 36
12 Angers 28 9 6 13 24 37 -13 33
13 Paris FC 28 7 11 10 33 44 -11 32
14 Le Havre 28 6 10 12 23 36 -13 28
15 Nice 28 7 6 15 33 55 -22 27
16 Auxerre 28 5 8 15 23 37 -14 23
17 Nantes 27 4 6 17 24 45 -21 18
18 Metz 28 3 6 19 25 60 -35 15

Recent Trends

Marseille L L W W W

  • Last Match: L vs Monaco (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Toulouse (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Lyon (Goals: 3 - 2)

Metz D D L L L

  • Last Match: D vs Nantes (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Toulouse (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lens (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Brest (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Marseille

xG (avg) 1.33
xGA (avg) 1.42
Clean Sheets 2

Metz

xG (avg) 0.40
xGA (avg) 1.74
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Marseille are clear favourites here, with an 82.0% probability of victory against a Metz side given just an 8.0% chance, and the hosts strongly backed to take three points in their push from 4th towards the Champions League spots. With a 58.0% likelihood of over 2.5 goals, the expectation is for an open game at the Vélodrome rather than a cagey relegation scrap, as 18th-placed Metz fight to avoid the drop.

Match Analysis

Marseille come in off a mixed run: defeat at Monaco (1-2), a home loss to Lille by the same score, and a narrow 1-0 win over Auxerre. Those three games underline a pattern: Marseille create plenty (19, 14 and 16 shots respectively) and rack up corners, but have been a touch wasteful. Over the last five outings they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with expected goals at 1.328 for and 1.416 against, suggesting they sometimes rely on clinical finishing more than sustained dominance in chance quality. Still, two clean sheets in that span show they can shut games down when needed. Metz, by contrast, are clinging on. They’ve taken two points from their last three: 0-0 at home to Nantes, 0-0 away at Rennes, and a wild 3-4 home defeat to Toulouse. The numbers paint a worrying picture: just 0.2 goals scored on average in their last five, 1.8 conceded, and only 0.4 xG created per game against 1.742 xG allowed. Even when they’ve defended deep and earned clean sheets, they’ve struggled badly to threaten in attack.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Marseille
Goals in last 5 matches
Metz
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 58.0%, and the recent scorelines back that up more than they first appear. Two of Marseille’s last three matches finished 1-2, going over 2.5, with only the 1-0 against Auxerre falling under 2.5. Metz have had two low-scoring 0-0 draws, but that 3-4 defeat to Toulouse shows how quickly their games can open up when their defensive structure cracks. With Marseille averaging 2.0 goals scored and Metz conceding 1.8 on recent form, the balance of goals and xG points towards another match likely to clear that line.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Marseille
Corners in last 5 matches
Metz
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model’s corners prediction sits at 9.53 total corners, which fits the recent pattern of Marseille’s games. They’ve seen 8, 10 and 11 corners in their last three (8-0, 6-4 and 9-2 from their perspective), reflecting a side that attacks relentlessly, especially at home, and forces opponents deep. Metz’s last three have produced 9, 10 and 8 corners (6-3, 2-8, 4-4), suggesting they can be pinned back and concede a flurry when facing stronger attacks. Expect the predicted corners figure to be driven largely by Marseille’s pressure and volume of wide play.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Marseille
Shots in last 5 matches
Metz
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With expected shots at 26.98, this match should feature plenty of attempts on goal. Marseille alone have fired 19, 14 and 16 shots in their last three, consistently peppering opponents, while conceding 7, 11 and 8. Metz, despite their attacking issues, were involved in high-shot contests against Nantes (19-6), Rennes (7-25) and Toulouse (17-19), all comfortably above 20 total efforts. That aligns neatly with the shots prediction and Marseille’s xG profile: a busy Marseille attack, Metz under pressure, and a match likely to see close to 27 combined efforts.

Final Prediction

Marseille’s superior league position, attacking output and recent shot and corner volume give them a clear edge over a Metz side stuck in 18th and struggling badly in front of goal. If Metz cannot improve on their meagre 0.4 xG average, they will spend most of the evening defending. The key factor to watch will be Marseille’s efficiency: if they convert their expected dominance into early goals, this could quickly become a one-sided affair.

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