Monaco
Ligue 1 · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #6 of 18 52.4 expected pts · pre-season forecast
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 1 simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #7 of 18 in Ligue 1 54 pts · 16W–6D–12L · GD +6
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Ligue 1 simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Monaco?
Chaos club 2025-26 · 25 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Monaco's results were 24.4% harder to call than the Ligue 1 average. How this is measured.
| Market | Monaco | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 36.0% | 47.2% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | 55.7% |
| Both teams to score | 64.0% | 48.6% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Ligue 1 | #5 | 1520 | 1622 | 1596 |
| 2024-25 | Ligue 1 | #5 | 1518 | 1616 | 1579 |
| 2023-24 | Ligue 1 | #2 | 1533 | 1661 | 1661 |
| 2022-23 | Ligue 1 | #13 | 1529 | 1662 | 1485 |
| 2021-22 | Ligue 1 | #1 | 1498 | 1683 | 1683 |
| 2020-21 | Ligue 1 | #3 | 1498 | 1687 | 1671 |
| 2019-20 | Ligue 1 | #9 | 1466 | 1569 | 1510 |
| 2018-19 | Ligue 1 | #15 | 1533 | 1533 | 1430 |
| 2017-18 | Ligue 1 | #3 | 1518 | 1691 | 1656 |
| 2016-17 | Ligue 1 | #1 | 1498 | 1785 | 1785 |
| 2015-16 | Ligue 1 | #5 | 1529 | 1610 | 1595 |
| 2014-15 | Ligue 1 | #2 | 1471 | 1675 | 1660 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | at Metz | W Monaco 55.8% · draw 20.8% | W ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Toulouse | W Monaco 44.3% · draw 24.7% | D ✗ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | vs Auxerre | W Monaco 62.5% · draw 19.1% | D ✗ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | vs Marseille | W Monaco 40.6% · draw 24.0% | W ✓ |
| Mar 22, 2026 | at Lyon | L Monaco 23.4% · draw 22.4% | W ✗ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Brest | W Monaco 58.0% · draw 20.9% | W ✓ |
| Mar 06, 2026 | at Paris Saint-Germain | L Monaco 9.6% · draw 11.7% | W ✗ |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vs Angers | W Monaco 67.7% · draw 16.8% | W ✓ |
| Feb 21, 2026 | at Lens | L Monaco 25.0% · draw 22.4% | W ✗ |
| Feb 08, 2026 | at Nice | W Monaco 42.7% · draw 24.2% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Ligue 1 title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/monaco">Ligue 1 title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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