Ligue 1 2025-2026: Monaco vs Lille Prediction - 10 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Monaco

Home Team
42%
VS

Lille

Away Team
33%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 63%
No Goal: 37%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 23.5
Expected Spread: -0.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 31 22 4 5 70 27 43 70
2 Lens 31 20 4 7 61 33 28 64
3 Lyon 32 18 6 8 52 34 18 60
4 Lille 32 17 7 8 51 35 16 58
5 Rennes 32 16 8 8 56 46 10 56
6 Monaco 32 16 6 10 56 48 8 54
7 Marseille 32 16 5 11 59 44 15 53
8 Strasbourg 31 13 7 11 50 41 9 46
9 Lorient 32 10 12 10 44 49 -5 42
10 Toulouse 32 11 8 13 45 45 0 41
11 Paris FC 32 10 11 11 44 47 -3 41
12 Brest 31 10 8 13 41 51 -10 38
13 Angers 32 9 7 16 27 46 -19 34
14 Le Havre 32 6 14 12 30 43 -13 32
15 Nice 32 7 10 15 36 58 -22 31
16 Auxerre 32 6 10 16 30 43 -13 28
17 Nantes 32 5 8 19 29 51 -22 23
18 Metz 32 3 7 22 32 72 -40 16

Recent Trends

Monaco W D D L W

  • Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Toulouse (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Auxerre (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Paris FC (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 1)

Lille D W D W W

  • Last Match: D vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Paris FC (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Nice (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Toulouse (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Lens (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Monaco

xG (avg) 2.06
xGA (avg) 1.41
Clean Sheets 0

Lille

xG (avg) 1.91
xGA (avg) 1.08
Clean Sheets 4

Key Prediction Insights

Monaco are narrowly favoured to take all three points at home, with a 42.0% chance of victory compared to Lille’s 33.0% and a 25.0% probability of a draw. The model leans towards a Monaco win despite Lille sitting 4th and Monaco 6th in Ligue 1, separated by just four points. Goals are expected, with an over 2.5 prediction at 60.0% and both teams tipped to score (63.0% goal probability).

Match Analysis

Both sides arrive in decent form but via very different routes. Monaco’s last three games have all been open affairs: a 2-1 win at Metz and back-to-back 2-2 draws against Toulouse and Auxerre show they are consistently finding the net but can’t quite close games out. They’ve scored 2.2 goals per match across their last five and generated an average of 2.06 expected goals, yet they haven’t kept a single clean sheet in that period, conceding 0.8 per game with 1.408 expected goals against. Lille, by contrast, are grinding out results with a more controlled style. A 1-0 away victory at Paris FC is bookended by a 1-1 draw with Le Havre and a 0-0 against Nice, underlining a side that keeps things tight but perhaps lacks some cutting edge at times. Their last five show 2.0 goals scored per game and a solid 1.91 expected goals, but the headline is at the back: just 0.4 goals conceded on average, 1.082 xG against, and four clean sheets from five. It sets up a classic clash of Monaco’s expansive attack against Lille’s disciplined defence, with the home advantage just tipping the balance.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Monaco
Goals in last 5 matches
Lille
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 60.0% is backed up strongly by Monaco’s recent pattern: all three of their last matches (2-1, 2-2, 2-2) have gone over 2.5 goals. Lille lean the other way, with all three of their latest games (1-1, 1-0, 0-0) coming in under 2.5. Still, Monaco’s mix of 2.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game, plus their 2.06 xG for and 1.408 xG against, suggests a more open contest than Lille normally play, nudging this away from any under 2.5 scenario.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Monaco
Corners in last 5 matches
Lille
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.34 total corners, a moderate figure for a match likely to ebb and flow rather than be one-way traffic. Monaco’s last three matches produced 14, 6 and 14 total corners respectively, reflecting their ability to sustain pressure, particularly at home where they drew 11 corners against Auxerre. Lille’s recent games generated 19, 10 and 8 corners, boosted by a huge 14-5 count versus Le Havre, hinting at a side that can pile on set-piece pressure when on top. Both teams’ attacking intentions and wide play support this level of predicted corners rather than an especially low count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Monaco
Shots in last 5 matches
Lille
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure sits at 23.47 total attempts, in line with what both sides have shown lately. Monaco’s recent matches saw combined shot totals of 28 (Metz), 26 (Toulouse) and 27 (Auxerre), underlining how their open style inflates shot counts at both ends. Lille’s games have been slightly more restrained – 24 against Le Havre, 17 versus Paris FC, 14 against Nice – but their 1.91 xG average shows they still create decent chances. This shots prediction fits a contest where Monaco’s attacking volume and Lille’s efficiency balance out to a high‑twenties attempt tally.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Monaco wins by X goals. Negative = Lille wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Monaco vs Lille with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Monaco vs Lille
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is intriguingly set at -0.14 (home minus away), meaning that on pure expected spread Lille are fractionally favoured, even though the headline probability tips Monaco to win. Monaco’s last three results give them a +1 goal difference (6 scored, 5 conceded), while Lille sit at +1 as well (2 scored, 1 conceded). With Monaco more expansive but leakier and Lille more solid but less explosive, the expected spread being almost level reflects how tight this should be, even if home advantage nudges the win probability towards Monaco.

Final Prediction

Monaco are backed as slight favourites thanks to their home form, higher attacking output and the likelihood of a more open game suiting their strengths. Lille’s defensive record and four recent clean sheets mean they are more than capable of frustrating the hosts, but if the match opens up, Monaco’s 2.2 goals per game and strong xG numbers could be decisive. The key factor to watch will be whether Monaco can break Lille’s defensive structure early; if they do, the game could quickly tilt towards the hosts and the over 2.5 line.

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